田露, 明波, 张玮, 黄康迪. 金沙江下游水风光资源多时间尺度互补性分析[J]. 水力发电学报, 2023, 42(10): 40-49.
引用本文: 田露, 明波, 张玮, 黄康迪. 金沙江下游水风光资源多时间尺度互补性分析[J]. 水力发电学报, 2023, 42(10): 40-49.
TIAN Lu, MING Bo, ZHANG Wei, HUANG Kangdi. Multi-time scale complementarity analysis of hydropower,wind power and photoelectric resources in lower reaches of Jinsha River[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROELECTRIC ENGINEERING, 2023, 42(10): 40-49.
Citation: TIAN Lu, MING Bo, ZHANG Wei, HUANG Kangdi. Multi-time scale complementarity analysis of hydropower,wind power and photoelectric resources in lower reaches of Jinsha River[J]. JOURNAL OF HYDROELECTRIC ENGINEERING, 2023, 42(10): 40-49.

金沙江下游水风光资源多时间尺度互补性分析

Multi-time scale complementarity analysis of hydropower,wind power and photoelectric resources in lower reaches of Jinsha River

  • 摘要: 多种能源的互补性分析是科学规划风、光大基地的基础。本文建立基于波动性描述的互补评价指标体系,以金沙江下游水风光一体化清洁能源基地为研究区域,开展水风光资源多时间尺度的互补规律分析。结果表明:从格林威治风场设计平台和光伏地理信息系统获取的风、光出力分布规律与实测序列一致,具有较高的可靠性;风电与光伏互补性较弱,在日内、年内、年际尺度上具有互补性的概率仅为25.5%、0和37.2%;径流、风电与光伏三者互补性较强,在日内、年内和年际尺度上具有互补性的概率分别为46.5%、100%和53.5%。

     

    Abstract: Complementarity analysis of various energy sources is a basis for scientific planning of large wind power and photovoltaic bases. In this paper, a complementary evaluation index system based on a volatility description is formulated, and a multi-time scale analysis of the complementarity of hydropower, wind power and photoelectric is made for the study area: a hydropower, wind power and photoelectric-integrated clean energy base in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River. The results show that the power distribution trends of wind power and photovoltaic power-obtained from Greenwich and PhotoVoltaic Geographic Information System(PVGIS)-agree with the measured sequence, which have high reliability. The complementarity of wind power and photovoltaic is weak, and its probabilities are only 25.5%, 0.0% and 37.2% in intra-day, intra-year and inter-year scales, respectively. Runoff, wind power and photovoltaic are highly complementary, and the probabilities raise to 46.5%, 100.0% and 53.5% in the three scales, respectively.

     

/

返回文章
返回