马文祚, 夏周武. 考虑新能源不确定性的电网运营商多时间尺度鲁棒交易[J]. 山东电力技术, 2024, 51(8): 49-58. DOI: 10.20097/j.cnki.issn1007-9904.2024.08.006
引用本文: 马文祚, 夏周武. 考虑新能源不确定性的电网运营商多时间尺度鲁棒交易[J]. 山东电力技术, 2024, 51(8): 49-58. DOI: 10.20097/j.cnki.issn1007-9904.2024.08.006
MA Wen-zuo, XIA Zhou-wu. Multi-time Scale Robust Trading of Power Grid Operators Considering New Energy Uncertainty[J]. Shandong Electric Power, 2024, 51(8): 49-58. DOI: 10.20097/j.cnki.issn1007-9904.2024.08.006
Citation: MA Wen-zuo, XIA Zhou-wu. Multi-time Scale Robust Trading of Power Grid Operators Considering New Energy Uncertainty[J]. Shandong Electric Power, 2024, 51(8): 49-58. DOI: 10.20097/j.cnki.issn1007-9904.2024.08.006

考虑新能源不确定性的电网运营商多时间尺度鲁棒交易

Multi-time Scale Robust Trading of Power Grid Operators Considering New Energy Uncertainty

  • 摘要: “双碳”目标下,新能源出力的不确定性加剧了电网电价波动。针对现货电价和电负荷的不确定性,在满足网络拓扑约束前提下,综合考虑现货市场交易与双边合同、期权合约交易,建立了多时间尺度多类型交易耦合模型,并基于可信性理论对其中的不确定性因素进行评估。同时,利用清晰等价类方法将模糊机会约束转化为确定性约束,建立考虑多重不确定性的电网运营商(power grid operators,PGO)多时间尺度鲁棒交易策略模型。通过IEEE 33节点配电网络(power distribution network,PDN)进行仿真测试,结果验证所提模型在对冲电力市场交易风险方面的有效性,多时间尺度的多类型交易能够提高系统的经济性和鲁棒性,所提出的风险规避因子能够量化市场交易的不确定性,为电网运营商的市场决策和风险评估提供了一种新思路。

     

    Abstract: Under the "double carbon" target,the uncertainty of new energy output has intensified the fluctuation of power grid prices.In view of the uncertainty of spot prices and power load,under the premise of satisfying network topological constraints,a multi-time scale multi-type trading coupling modeling was established,which comprehensively considers spot market trading,bilateral contract,and option contract trading.Moreover,the uncertainty risk assessment method based on credibility theory was derived. On this basis,the fuzzy opportunity constraints representing uncertainty risks were transformed into deterministic constraints by using clear equivalent classes,and a multi-time scale robust trading strategy model for power grid operators under multiple uncertainties was proposed.Simulations were carried out on the improved IEEE 33-node distribution network,and the results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model in hedging multiple uncertainty risks in power market transactions.The risk avoidance factor can quantify the uncertainty of market transactions,and multi-time scale and multi-type trading can improve the economic and robustness of the system,providing a new idea for power grid operators’ market decision-making and risk assessment.

     

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