景锐, 韩晖, 林剑艺. 计及台风极端天气影响的城市能源规划[J]. 全球能源互联网, 2021, 4(2): 178-187. DOI: 10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2021.02.008
引用本文: 景锐, 韩晖, 林剑艺. 计及台风极端天气影响的城市能源规划[J]. 全球能源互联网, 2021, 4(2): 178-187. DOI: 10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2021.02.008
JING Rui, HAN Hui, LIN Jian-yi. Urban Energy Planning Considering Impacts of Typhoon Extreme Weather[J]. Journal of Global Energy Interconnection, 2021, 4(2): 178-187. DOI: 10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2021.02.008
Citation: JING Rui, HAN Hui, LIN Jian-yi. Urban Energy Planning Considering Impacts of Typhoon Extreme Weather[J]. Journal of Global Energy Interconnection, 2021, 4(2): 178-187. DOI: 10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2021.02.008

计及台风极端天气影响的城市能源规划

Urban Energy Planning Considering Impacts of Typhoon Extreme Weather

  • 摘要: 气候变化导致极端天气事件频发,给城市能源供应带来了前所未有的挑战。但现有的城市能源规划研究较少考虑极端天气事件对城市能源系统的影响。基于天气历史数据与极端天气条件下系统运行情况生成极端天气情景,提出融合常规情景与极端天气情景的城市能源规划模型架构,并以厦门市的城市电源规划为案例展开研究。结果表明,当考虑以"十年一遇"或"五十年一遇"台风为例的极端天气时,城市能源系统20年的设计与运行综合成本将比不考虑极端天气事件时分别高1.8%和1.1%,同时适当增加气电的比例有助于提升城市能源系统的气候韧性。所提出的考虑极端天气事件的城市能源规划模型是灵活且可拓展的,可为中国易受台风极端天气影响的沿海城市提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Climate change leads to more frequent extreme weather events, thereby posing unprecedented challenges for urban energy supply. Few studies on urban energy planning have investigated the impacts of extreme weather events on urban energy systems. Based on historical weather data and system performance during extreme weather, extreme weather scenarios can be established and further combined with conventional scenarios to establish a modeling framework for urban energy planning. The specific power expansion planning case study conducted in Xiamen City indicates that when considering the "Once-in-ten-year" or "Once-in-fifty-year" typhoons as representative extreme weather, the total cost for 20 years’ design and operation of urban energy system is 1.8% or 1.1% higher than that when not considering extreme weather events; moreover, an increase in the proportion of gas power could enhance climate resilience of urban energy systems. In this study, we propose a flexible and extensible modeling framework, and the insights generated by the case study could offer referencing support for energy planning in coastal cities.

     

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