Abstract:
The increasingly severe climate change status poses enormous threats and challenges to the sustainable development of mankind. To address this problem, 195 parties have signed the Paris Agreement and agreed on achieving a 2 °C temperature control target by the end of the century. In this study, the outlook and analysis of future global energy demand and supply were conducted in the context of achieving the Paris Agreement’s 2 °C goal, and the mitigation pathway and energy scenario for the Global Energy Interconnection(GEI) combating climate change were proposed. Innovations were made in the establishment of the GEI scenario in the following three aspects: firstly, S-curve and machine learning methods were employed to predict the final energy demand of the industry, transportation, and building sectors; secondly, the cross-regional power interconnection module was introduced into the integrated assessment model(IAM) MESSAGEix to model and analyze the global energy and power interconnection, and the intensive development of clean energy; thirdly, the characteristics and values of the GEI scenario were analyzed by comparing this scenario with other scenarios that could also meet the Paris Agreement’s 2 °C target.