侯方心, 张士宁, 赵子健, 陈小彤, 谭新, 黄瀚, 杨方, 谭锋. 实现《巴黎协定》目标下的全球能源互联网情景展望分析[J]. 全球能源互联网, 2020, 3(1): 34-43. DOI: 10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2020.01.004
引用本文: 侯方心, 张士宁, 赵子健, 陈小彤, 谭新, 黄瀚, 杨方, 谭锋. 实现《巴黎协定》目标下的全球能源互联网情景展望分析[J]. 全球能源互联网, 2020, 3(1): 34-43. DOI: 10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2020.01.004
HOU Fangxin, ZHANG Shining, ZHAO Zijian, CHEN Xiaotong, TAN Xin, HUANG Han, YANG Fang, TAN Feng. Global Energy Interconnection Scenario Outlook and Analysis in the Context of Achieving the Paris Agreement Goals[J]. Journal of Global Energy Interconnection, 2020, 3(1): 34-43. DOI: 10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2020.01.004
Citation: HOU Fangxin, ZHANG Shining, ZHAO Zijian, CHEN Xiaotong, TAN Xin, HUANG Han, YANG Fang, TAN Feng. Global Energy Interconnection Scenario Outlook and Analysis in the Context of Achieving the Paris Agreement Goals[J]. Journal of Global Energy Interconnection, 2020, 3(1): 34-43. DOI: 10.19705/j.cnki.issn2096-5125.2020.01.004

实现《巴黎协定》目标下的全球能源互联网情景展望分析

Global Energy Interconnection Scenario Outlook and Analysis in the Context of Achieving the Paris Agreement Goals

  • 摘要: 气候变化形势日益严峻,给人类可持续发展带来巨大威胁和挑战。为应对气候变化,全球已有195个缔约方签署了《巴黎协定》,确定到本世纪末前实现2℃温控目标。基于《巴黎协定》 2℃温控目标,对全球未来能源需求和供应进行了展望分析,提出了全球能源互联网应对气候变化的减排路径和能源情景。在构建全球能源互联网情景研究中进行了3方面的创新。一是利用S曲线及机器学习方法对工业、交通、建筑部门进行了终端用能需求预测;二是在综合评估模型MESSAGEix中,引入跨区域电力互联运算模块和模拟技术,对全球电力互联互通及清洁能源集约化开发利用进行建模分析;三是将全球能源互联网情景与其他实现《巴黎协定》2℃目标的情景进行比较,分析其特点和价值。

     

    Abstract: The increasingly severe climate change status poses enormous threats and challenges to the sustainable development of mankind. To address this problem, 195 parties have signed the Paris Agreement and agreed on achieving a 2 °C temperature control target by the end of the century. In this study, the outlook and analysis of future global energy demand and supply were conducted in the context of achieving the Paris Agreement’s 2 °C goal, and the mitigation pathway and energy scenario for the Global Energy Interconnection(GEI) combating climate change were proposed. Innovations were made in the establishment of the GEI scenario in the following three aspects: firstly, S-curve and machine learning methods were employed to predict the final energy demand of the industry, transportation, and building sectors; secondly, the cross-regional power interconnection module was introduced into the integrated assessment model(IAM) MESSAGEix to model and analyze the global energy and power interconnection, and the intensive development of clean energy; thirdly, the characteristics and values of the GEI scenario were analyzed by comparing this scenario with other scenarios that could also meet the Paris Agreement’s 2 °C target.

     

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