张岩, 李洋博, 柳姗, 王月, 孙克磊. 基于蚁群优化神经网络模型的风电功率预测[J]. 内蒙古电力技术, 2019, 37(4): 26-30. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-6218.2019.04.016
引用本文: 张岩, 李洋博, 柳姗, 王月, 孙克磊. 基于蚁群优化神经网络模型的风电功率预测[J]. 内蒙古电力技术, 2019, 37(4): 26-30. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-6218.2019.04.016
ZHANG Yan, LI Yangbo, LIU Shan, WANG Yue, SUN Kelei. Prediction of Wind Power Based on Ant Colony Optimization Neural Network Model[J]. Inner Mongolia Electric Power, 2019, 37(4): 26-30. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-6218.2019.04.016
Citation: ZHANG Yan, LI Yangbo, LIU Shan, WANG Yue, SUN Kelei. Prediction of Wind Power Based on Ant Colony Optimization Neural Network Model[J]. Inner Mongolia Electric Power, 2019, 37(4): 26-30. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1008-6218.2019.04.016

基于蚁群优化神经网络模型的风电功率预测

Prediction of Wind Power Based on Ant Colony Optimization Neural Network Model

  • 摘要: 首先采用LM神经网络模型对风电功率进行预测,为确定神经网络最佳权值和阈值、避免出现局部最优,采用蚁群算法进行优化;之后通过风速的预测值确定了预测精度低的时间点,并利用风电功率特性曲线进一步预测这些时间点的风电功率;最后采用均方误差、准确率、合格率指标对预测结果进行了定量分析,结果表明基于蚁群优化神经网络模型的预测准确度提高了16.272百分点,合格率提高了18.735百分点,均方误差降低了3.117。

     

    Abstract: Firstly LM neural network model was used to predict the wind power. In order to determine the optimal weights and thresholds of the neural network and avoid local optimum, ant colony algorithm was used to optimize it. Then, the time points with low prediction accuracy were determined by the predicted values of wind speed, and these time points were further predicted by the curve of wind power characteristics. The results showed that the prediction accuracy based on ant colony optimization neural network model was improved by 16.272 percentage points, the qualified rate was increased by 18.735 percentage points, and the mean square error was reduced by 3.117.

     

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