申彦波. 新型能源体系建设中的气象问题与技术进展[J]. 南方能源建设,2025,12(1):31-42.. DOI: 10.16516/j.ceec.2024-423
引用本文: 申彦波. 新型能源体系建设中的气象问题与技术进展[J]. 南方能源建设,2025,12(1):31-42.. DOI: 10.16516/j.ceec.2024-423
SHEN Yanbo. Meteorological issues and technological progress in the development of new energy systems [J]. Southern energy construction, 2025, 12(1): 31-42. DOI: 10.16516/j.ceec.2024-423
Citation: SHEN Yanbo. Meteorological issues and technological progress in the development of new energy systems [J]. Southern energy construction, 2025, 12(1): 31-42. DOI: 10.16516/j.ceec.2024-423

新型能源体系建设中的气象问题与技术进展

Meteorological Issues and Technological Progress in the Development of New Energy Systems

  • 摘要:
    目的 新能源发电在未来相当长一段时间内,将持续呈现大规模、高比例、市场化、高质量的发展趋势特征。深入推进能源革命,加快构建新型能源体系与气象问题密切相关。
    方法 文章分析新型能源体系中的关键环节与天气气候的关系;从支撑、融入和保障3个方面强调气象工作在新型能源体系中的重要作用;详细梳理我国风能太阳能资源评估技术发展历程,包括资源评估技术、技术开发量评估方法以及新一轮风能太阳能资源普查工作的技术要点等;深入分析风能太阳能预报需求和预报时段划分,介绍中国气象局在超短期、短期、中期和长期预报方面的技术进展、主要业务产品以及风能太阳能发电精细化气象服务示范计划(SDP)的实施情况。
    结果 风能太阳能资源评估技术显著提升,但也面临着风电机组大型化、太阳能利用多元化所带来的挑战,需要不断发展新的资源评估技术应对能源行业需求;风能太阳能预报准确率的提升需要方法论的突破。“一场一策”构建风光场站的气象预报订正和功率预测模型,将是提升预报准确率的重要手段。
    结论 气象工作应以国务院《气象高质量发展纲要(2022—2035年)》为指引,不断强化科技创新和社会服务能力,为新型能源体系的高质量发展做出积极贡献。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective New energy power generation is expected to continue its development characterized by large scale, high proportion, marketization and high quality in the future. Advancing the energy revolution and accelerating the development of new energy systems are significantly influenced by meteorological issues.
    Method This study analyzed the relationship between key aspects of new energy systems and weather and climate. It highlighted the important role of meteorological work for new energy systems in three fields: support, integration and guarantee. The study presented the development history of wind and solar energy resource assessment technologies in China, covering resource assessment technology, assessment methods for technically available resources and key technical issues for the latest round of wind and solar energy resource censuses. Additionally, it examined the forecast demand and forecast period divisions for wind and solar energy, introduced the technical progress and main products of the China meteorological administration in ultra-short, short, medium, and long-term forecasts, and discussed the implementation of the precise meteorological service demonstration plan for wind and solar power generation (SDP).
    Result Wind and solar energy resource assessment technologies have seen significant improvements; however, they also face challenges posed by large-scale wind turbine generation systems and the diversified utilization of solar energy. Consequently, there is a pressing need to continuously develop new resource assessment technologies to meet the demands of the energy industry. Additionally, enhancing the accuracy of wind and solar energy forecasts requires breakthroughs in methodology. Developing meteorological forecast correction and power prediction models for wind and solar power generation stations, based on the principle of applying a tailored policy to each station, will be a crucial strategy for enhancing forecast accuracy.
    Conclusion Meteorological work should be guided by the Guidelines for High-Quality Meteorology Development (2022-2035) issued by the State Council. It is essential to continually strengthen scientific and technological innovation, as well as social service capabilities, in order to make positive contributions to the high-quality development of new energy systems.

     

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