曹辰,王增平. 极端天气对新型电力系统的影响及应对措施思考[J]. 南方能源建设,2025,12(1):43-57.. DOI: 10.16516/j.ceec.2024-367
引用本文: 曹辰,王增平. 极端天气对新型电力系统的影响及应对措施思考[J]. 南方能源建设,2025,12(1):43-57.. DOI: 10.16516/j.ceec.2024-367
CAO Chen, WANG Zengping. Reflections on the impact of extreme weather on new power systems and countermeasures [J]. Southern energy construction, 2025, 12(1): 43-57. DOI: 10.16516/j.ceec.2024-367
Citation: CAO Chen, WANG Zengping. Reflections on the impact of extreme weather on new power systems and countermeasures [J]. Southern energy construction, 2025, 12(1): 43-57. DOI: 10.16516/j.ceec.2024-367

极端天气对新型电力系统的影响及应对措施思考

Reflections on the Impact of Extreme Weather on New Power Systems and Countermeasures

  • 摘要:
    目的 近年来,受气候变暖等因素影响,全球范围内极端天气事件呈现出频发特征。与此同时,在“碳达峰,碳中和”目标下,风光等波动性新能源高比例并网、电力电子设备大量应用以及交直流特高压远距离输电技术的应用都在不断重塑传统电网的本来特征,更多的电力一次设备裸露在恶劣环境中运行,电力系统受外部极端天气的影响更加严重。
    方法 文章首先梳理了近年来典型台风、暴雨和冰雪等极端天气事件对电力系统设备及运行的影响。同时结合典型案例深入探讨了新型电力系统范式下的系统性风险表现。在此基础上,提出针对不同灾害场景的精细化建模、系统风险评估及跨领域协作的应对策略的一些思考与展望。
    结果 研究表明,极端天气的冲击加剧了设备故障和系统不稳定的风险,新型电力系统的高比例新能源接入进一步放大了故障传播的影响。
    结论 在新型电力系统深入建设和极端天气加剧冲击的双重压力下,电力系统的安全稳定运行依赖于设备风险建模、系统性风险防控及跨领域协作机制的提升。因此,未来研究应聚焦于构建电力系统的多维度联合风险评估。同时,指出强化电力系统与气象系统的深度耦合的必要性,以提高系统的风险预测与动态应对能力,为系统的韧性提升提供科学依据与技术支持。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective In recent years, climate warming and other factors have led to a rise in extreme weather events globally. Simultaneously, under the "carbon peak - carbon neutral" goal, the integration of fluctuating renewable energy including wind and solar energy, extensive use of power electronics and long-distance ultra-high-voltage transmission have reshaped traditional power grids. These changes have increased the exposure of primary equipment to harsh environments, intensifying the vulnerability of power systems to extreme weather impacts.
    Method This paper reviewed the impact of recent extreme weather events, such as typhoons, heavy rainfall and ice storms, on power system equipment and operations. It explored systemic risk performance in depth in new power systems through case studies and proposed strategies for refined modeling, systemic risk assessment and cross-disciplinary collaboration across disaster scenarios.
    Result  The research shows that extreme weather significantly increases the risks of equipment failures and system instability, with high renewable energy penetration amplifying the impact of failure propagation.
    Conclusion The safe operation of power systems under the dual pressure of in-depth construction of new power systems and intensified impact of extreme weather relies on improvement of equipment risk modeling, systemic risk control and cross- disciplinary collaboration mechanisms. Therefore, future research should focus on building multi-dimensional joint risk assessment of power systems. In addition, the paper points out the significance of strengthening in-depth integration of power systems and meteorological systems for enhancing risk prediction and dynamic response capabilities of the system, thus providing scientific basis and technical support for improving the system resilience.

     

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