吴东奇, 甘俊文, 郭经韬, 余欣梅, 廖毅. 工业化后期广东省能源行业发展的经济贡献测算[J]. 南方能源建设. DOI: 10.16516/j.ceec.2024-058
引用本文: 吴东奇, 甘俊文, 郭经韬, 余欣梅, 廖毅. 工业化后期广东省能源行业发展的经济贡献测算[J]. 南方能源建设. DOI: 10.16516/j.ceec.2024-058
WU Dongqi, GAN Junwen, GUO Jingtao, YU Xinmei, LIAO Yi. Economic Contribution Measurement of Energy Sector Development During Late Industrialization Period in Guangdong Province[J]. Southern Energy Construction. DOI: 10.16516/j.ceec.2024-058
Citation: WU Dongqi, GAN Junwen, GUO Jingtao, YU Xinmei, LIAO Yi. Economic Contribution Measurement of Energy Sector Development During Late Industrialization Period in Guangdong Province[J]. Southern Energy Construction. DOI: 10.16516/j.ceec.2024-058

工业化后期广东省能源行业发展的经济贡献测算

Economic Contribution Measurement of Energy Sector Development During Late Industrialization Period in Guangdong Province

  • 摘要:
      目的  能源是工业的粮食和国民经济的命脉。改革开放以来,广东经济建设取得的巨大成就离不开能源行业发展提供的支持和后勤保障。广东作为能源消费大省和资源小省,能源自给率较低,一直面临能源匮乏的挑战。经过多年发展与转型,广东能源行业正逐渐形成传统火电、核电、海上风电、光伏发电等多元能源组合的新型能源体系,能源行业也从经济生产的制约因素之一转变为省内高新技术制造产业链的有机组成部分。从宏观经济角度分析能源行业发展的经济贡献,对制定科学的能源产业发展规划,推动广东能源与经济协同高质量发展具有现实意义。
      方法  首先整合代表广东能源行业与经济发展的指标数据建立研究数据集,然后分别使用向量自回归模型与Feder两部门生产函数模型对广东能源行业的整体经济贡献与溢出效应进行定量分析。
      结果  分析结果表明,工业化后期阶段下广东能源行业与整体经济发展间存在相互促进的关系,能源行业生产对经济增长的整体贡献与溢出效应均较为显著,但能源投资的经济拉动作用相对较低。
      结论  研究从实证角度测算了广东能源行业的经济贡献,根据结果提出了广东能源行业高质量发展的建议,可为广东能源发展规划与政策制定提供参考。

     

    Abstract:
      Introduction  Energy is widely considered the fuel of industry and the lifeline of the national economy. The impressive economic and development achievement of Guangdong after reform and opening up relied heavily on the support and logistical backing from the development of its energy industry. Being a major energy consumer with limited resources and thus featuring low self-sufficiency in energy, Guangdong has always faced the threat of energy scarcity. After decades of development and transition, its energy sector is gradually evolving into a diversified new energy system composed of traditional thermal power, nuclear power, offshore wind power, and photovoltaic power generation. It has shifted from being a limiting factor in economic production to becoming an integral component of the province's high-tech manufacturing industry chain. Analyzing the economic contribution of energy sector from a macroeconomic perspective holds practical significance for formulating scientific energy industry development plans and promoting high-quality, coordinated development of energy and economy in Guangdong.
      Method  Firstly, a research dataset was established by integrating the indicator data that represent the development of the energy sector and economy in Guangdong. Subsequently, both the vector autoregression model and the Feder two-sector production function model were employed to conduct a quantitative analysis of the overall economic contribution and spillover effects of Guangdong's energy sector.
      Result  The analysis indicates that, during the late industrialization phase, a mutually reinforcing relationship existed between the energy sector and economic development in Guangdong. The production of the energy sector makes a significant overall contribution to economic growth, with notable spillover effects. However, the economic stimulus effect of energy investments is comparatively low.
      Conclusion  The study empirically estimates the economic contribution of energy sector in Guangdong and based on the findings, suggests recommendations for high-quality development of Guangdong's energy sector. These can serve as references for the development planning and policy-making of Guangdong's energy development.

     

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