改进灰色预测模型在电力负荷预测中的应用
Application of Improved Grey Forecasting Model in Power Load Forecasting
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摘要: 为解决传统灰色预测方法仅适合单一变量的问题,在传统GM(1,1)模型的基础上建立了含几个变量的GM(1,n)模型,改进传统模型中某个参数的赋值方法,重新建立改进灰色预测模型,将改进的GM(1,n)模型应用于电力负荷预测中。以某城市2013-2019年的电网负荷研究为例,利用GM(1,n)模型与改进GM(1,n)模型分别仿真计算,比较两者的仿真结果,验证得到改进灰色模型的预测结果精度更高、误差更小,更加适合多变量的负荷预测。Abstract: In order to solve the problem that the traditional grey prediction method is only suitable for a single variable, a GM(1,n) model with several variables is established on the basis of the traditional GM(1,1) model, and the method of assigning a certain parameter in the traditional model is improved. Re-establish the improved grey forecasting model, and apply the improved GM(1,n) model to power load forecasting.Take the grid load research of a city from 2013 to 2019 as an example, use the GM(1,1) model and the GM(1,n) model to simulate and calculate separately, compare the simulation results of the two, and verify the prediction results obtained by the improved grey model With higher accuracy and smaller error, it is more suitable for multivariate load forecasting.