赵征, 周孜钰, 南宏钢. 基于VMD的CNN-BiLSTM超短期风电功率多步区间预测[J]. 华北电力大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 49(4): 91-97.
引用本文: 赵征, 周孜钰, 南宏钢. 基于VMD的CNN-BiLSTM超短期风电功率多步区间预测[J]. 华北电力大学学报(自然科学版), 2022, 49(4): 91-97.
ZHAO Zheng, ZHOU Ziyu, NAN Honggang. Research on Multi-step Interval Forecasting of CNN-BiLSTM Ultra-short-term Wind Power Based on VMD[J]. Journal of North China Electric Power University, 2022, 49(4): 91-97.
Citation: ZHAO Zheng, ZHOU Ziyu, NAN Honggang. Research on Multi-step Interval Forecasting of CNN-BiLSTM Ultra-short-term Wind Power Based on VMD[J]. Journal of North China Electric Power University, 2022, 49(4): 91-97.

基于VMD的CNN-BiLSTM超短期风电功率多步区间预测

Research on Multi-step Interval Forecasting of CNN-BiLSTM Ultra-short-term Wind Power Based on VMD

  • 摘要: 风能是随机波动的不稳定能源,大规模风电并入电网将对电网稳定性造成很大影响,有效预测风电功率区间将极大提高电网经济性与稳定性。针对风电功率数据的非线性,非平稳特性,提出一种基于VMD的CNN-BiLSTM超短期风电功率多步区间预测方法。首先对风电功率数据进行小幅上下波动,形成CNN-BiLSTM模型的初始上下限。其次运用变分模态分解(VMD)分别将上下限数据分解为若干个子分量,以降低风电功率时间序列的非平稳特性。然后将子分量输入CNN-BiLSTM模型,得到风电功率预测区间。最后以改进覆盖宽度准则为目标函数优化区间,得到给定置信水平下的风电功率预测区间。使用某风电场实际运行数据,与CNN-GRU、CNN-LSTM、KELM、SVR这4种模型作比,验证结果表明基于VMD的CNN-BiLSTM超短期风电功率多步区间预测方法可有效提高风力发电超短期区间预测精度。

     

    Abstract: Wind energy is an unstable energy with random fluctuation. Large-scale integration of wind power into the power grid will have a great impact on the stability of the power grid. Effective prediction of wind power range will greatly improve the economy and stability of the power grid. Aiming at the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of wind power data, a multi-step interval prediction method of ultra-short-term wind power based on CNN-BILSTM was proposed. Firstly, the wind power data fluctuates slightly up and down to form the initial upper and lower limits of CNN-BILSTM model. Secondly, variational modal decomposition(VMD) was used to decompose the data of upper and lower limit into several sub-components to reduce the non-stationary characteristics of wind power time series. Then, the sub-components were input into CNN-BILSTM model to obtain the prediction interval of wind power. Finally, the improved coverage width criterion was taken as the objective function optimization interval to obtain the wind power prediction interval at the given confidence level.The actual operation data of a wind farm was compared with CNN-GRU, CNN-LSTM, KELM and SVR models. The verification results show that the multi-step interval prediction method of CNN-BILSTM ultra-short-term wind power based on VMD can effectively improve the accuracy of ultra-short-term interval prediction of wind power.

     

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