刘海康, 廖雁群, 韦亦龙, 袁婧, 徐小冰, 周承科. 结合贝叶斯推断与Weibull比例风险模型的高压电缆可靠性分析方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2021, 47(2): 546-554. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20191176
引用本文: 刘海康, 廖雁群, 韦亦龙, 袁婧, 徐小冰, 周承科. 结合贝叶斯推断与Weibull比例风险模型的高压电缆可靠性分析方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2021, 47(2): 546-554. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20191176
LIU Haikang, LIAO Yanqun, WEI Yilong, YUAN Jing, XU Xiaobing, ZHOU Chengke. Analysis Method for High-voltage Cable Reliability Combining Bayes Inference and Weibull Proportion Hazard Model[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2021, 47(2): 546-554. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20191176
Citation: LIU Haikang, LIAO Yanqun, WEI Yilong, YUAN Jing, XU Xiaobing, ZHOU Chengke. Analysis Method for High-voltage Cable Reliability Combining Bayes Inference and Weibull Proportion Hazard Model[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2021, 47(2): 546-554. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20191176

结合贝叶斯推断与Weibull比例风险模型的高压电缆可靠性分析方法

Analysis Method for High-voltage Cable Reliability Combining Bayes Inference and Weibull Proportion Hazard Model

  • 摘要: 高压电缆差异化检修及退役决策需要电缆可靠性分析结果作为依据。Weibull分布模型可以对高压电缆总体的可靠性进行分析,但无法区分不同运行条件下电缆个体差别。且传统统计估计方法在电缆老化故障样本较少时难以得到准确结果。为此,提出一种贝叶斯推断与Weibull比例风险模型相结合的分析方法,通过Weibull比例风险模型建立不同条件与电缆可靠性的关系,利用贝叶斯推断结合高压电缆相关先验信息和运行及故障数据进行模型参数估计,实现不同运行状况下电缆个体的可靠性分析。应用所提出方法对实际电缆线路数据进行分析,发现是否直埋敷设及负荷率大小对所研究地区高压电缆可靠性存在较大影响,并根据在运线路可靠性分析结果给出了差异化检修及退役更换决策的建议。12条在运及故障高压电缆线路分析结果表明,所提出的方法能充分利用高压电缆经验信息和数量较少的老化故障数据,给出更加准确的可靠性分析和预测结果,解决了现有方法难以应用于故障数据较少情况下电缆个体可靠性分析的难题。

     

    Abstract: Whether to carry out differential maintenance activities and strategy of managing replacement for individual high-voltage cables is based on the analysis of cable reliability. However, the application of conventional Weibull methods to analysis of failure data does not provide information on differential aging status of individual cable condition. In addition, it is difficult to obtain accurate results for traditional statistical models, owing to the limited aging and failure data of high-voltage cables. In this paper, a method is proposed by combining Bayes inference with Weibull proportional hazard model. The relationship between cable reliability and different conditions is established through the Weibull proportional hazard model, and the parameters of the model can be estimated through Bayes inference by combining high-voltage cable related prior information with operational and failure data. Moreover, the reliability of individual cables can be analyzed using the model and the estimated parameters. The proposed method is then applied to the cable data, and it is found that whether to directly bury cables as well as the magnitude of the load rate has a greater impact on the reliability of the high-voltage cable in the studied area. Based on the reliability analysis, the recommendations for differential maintenance and replacement decisions are given. The results of applying the proposed model to 12 faulty and in-service high-voltage cables show that the proposed method can be used to analyze the reliability of high-voltage cables and can make full use of limited data and prior information to give relatively more accurate results, thus proving the feasibility to solve the problem that it is difficult for the existing methods to apply to reliability analysis of individual cable with limited failure data.

     

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