叶林, 裴铭, 李卓, 宋旭日, 罗雅迪, 汤涌. 风电和光伏发电功率联合预测与预调度框架[J]. 高电压技术, 2024, 50(9): 3823-3836. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20241424
引用本文: 叶林, 裴铭, 李卓, 宋旭日, 罗雅迪, 汤涌. 风电和光伏发电功率联合预测与预调度框架[J]. 高电压技术, 2024, 50(9): 3823-3836. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20241424
YE Lin, PEI Ming, LI Zhuo, SONG Xuri, LUO Yadi, TANG Yong. Framework for Joint Wind and Photovoltaic Power Forecasting and Pre-dispatch[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2024, 50(9): 3823-3836. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20241424
Citation: YE Lin, PEI Ming, LI Zhuo, SONG Xuri, LUO Yadi, TANG Yong. Framework for Joint Wind and Photovoltaic Power Forecasting and Pre-dispatch[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2024, 50(9): 3823-3836. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20241424

风电和光伏发电功率联合预测与预调度框架

Framework for Joint Wind and Photovoltaic Power Forecasting and Pre-dispatch

  • 摘要: 随着多区域互联电力系统的发展,风电、光伏等新能源发电大规模并网,风电-光伏功率的联合预测和协调调度是必然趋势和迫切需求。为此,从风电-光伏发电的时空相关性分析出发,对风电-光伏功率时空耦合、风电光伏联合预测建模、风电光伏联合预测模型参数优化、考虑风电-光伏联合预测的电力系统预调度等方面进行了分析讨论。首先,研究揭示风电-光伏功率在时间-空间上的交互影响机理,提出面向多时间尺度的风电-光伏功率时间互补性分析方法,建立风电-光伏发电空间相关性量化模型,构建基于多阶图卷积神经网络风电-光伏发电时空耦合模型;基于此,研究提出了融合异构图神经网络的风电-光伏联合预测方法,建立了风电-光伏联合预测模型参数优化模型,构建了新能源有功功率预测误差矢量评价体系,为风电-光伏联合发电系统的协调调度和控制提供决策支撑;在风电-光伏联合发电预测的基础上,采用风电、光伏发电时间互补、空间互济的思路探讨了风电-光伏联合的电力系统预调度策略和方法,对不同时间尺度风电-光伏的协调调度策略进行了剖析,建立了电网-区域-集群-场站空间递阶的风电-光伏联合发电系统分层调度框架。最后,展望了未来风电-光伏联合预测与预调度方面应研究的方向。

     

    Abstract: With the development of multi-region interconnected power system, the wind power, photovoltaic (PV) and other new energy power generation are connected to the grid on a large scale, and it is an inevitable trend and urgent need to perform the joint prediction and coordinated scheduling of wind power-photovoltaic power. Starting from the analysis of the spatio-temporal correlation of wind power-photovoltaic (PV) power generation, this paper analyzes and discusses the spatio-temporal coupling of wind power-PV power, modelling of wind power-PV joint forecast, optimization of the parameters of wind power-PV joint forecast model, and pre-dispatch of the power system considering the wind-PV joint forecast. Firstly, the mechanism of wind-PV power interaction in time-space is revealed, a multi-time scale wind-PV power time complementarity analysis method is proposed, a quantitative model for the spatial correlation of wind-PV power generation is established, and a spatial and temporal coupling model for wind-PV power generation is constructed based on a multistage graph convolutional neural network. Based on the results above, a joint prediction method of wind-PV power by integrating heterogeneous graph neural networks is proposed, a joint forecasting model for wind-PV power optimization model of the parameters of the joint prediction model is constructed, and a new energy active power prediction error vector evaluation system is constructed, which provide decision-making supports for the coordinated scheduling and control of the wind-optical joint power generation system. On the basis of wind-optical joint power generation prediction, the wind power and photovoltaic power generation time complementary and spatial mutual aid ideas are used to explore the wind-optical joint power system pre-scheduling strategies and methods, and the wind-optical coordinated scheduling strategies at different time scales are dissected and analyzed, and a hierarchical scheduling framework for the combined wind-photovoltaic power generation system with spatial progression of power grid-region-cluster-field station is established. Finally, the prospects in future researches on wind-PV joint prediction and pre-dispatch are put forward.

     

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