陈宗汉, 徐永海, 陶顺, 袁金斗, 杨恒, 潘明明. 面向负荷管理过程的工业用户安全用电风险态势感知方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2023, 49(7): 2796-2805. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20230616
引用本文: 陈宗汉, 徐永海, 陶顺, 袁金斗, 杨恒, 潘明明. 面向负荷管理过程的工业用户安全用电风险态势感知方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2023, 49(7): 2796-2805. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20230616
CHEN Zonghan, XU Yonghai, TAO Shun, YUAN Jindou, YANG Heng, PAN Mingming. Risk-aware Approach to Industrial Users' Safe Electricity Consumption for Load Management Processes[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2023, 49(7): 2796-2805. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20230616
Citation: CHEN Zonghan, XU Yonghai, TAO Shun, YUAN Jindou, YANG Heng, PAN Mingming. Risk-aware Approach to Industrial Users' Safe Electricity Consumption for Load Management Processes[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2023, 49(7): 2796-2805. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20230616

面向负荷管理过程的工业用户安全用电风险态势感知方法

Risk-aware Approach to Industrial Users' Safe Electricity Consumption for Load Management Processes

  • 摘要: 为评估工业用户内部负荷设备受调控时存在的风险态势并加以防范,基于态势感知技术,提出了一种面向负荷管理过程的工业用户安全用电风险态势感知方法。首先,基于工业用户负荷设备的历史出力数据和故障率,训练贝叶斯长短期记忆网络(long short-term memory,LSTM)模型预测风险传播时刻的对应值;然后,类比SI (susceptible and infective)模型,提出了考虑负荷不确定性的风险传播模型;其次,从负荷设备自身安全风险、生产过程风险和经济损失风险3个角度提出了工业用户安全用电风险态势呈现指标体系;最后,基于风险传播模型和指标体系,有效实现工业用户内部负荷设备调控对象优选和指导风险防控方案制定。采用钢厂工业用户进行仿真算例分析,验证所提方法的合理性和有效性。

     

    Abstract: In this paper, we propose a risk-aware method for industrial users to assess and prevent the risk situation when the load equipment within the industrial user is regulated, based on situational awareness technology. Firstly, the Bayesian LSTM model is trained to predict the corresponding values at the time of risk propagation based on the historical output data and fault rate of industrial consumers' load equipment. Secondly, a model of risk propagation that takes into account load uncertainty is proposed by analogy with the SI model. Thirdly, a system of indicators is proposed to present the risk situation of industrial users in terms of the risk of safety of the load equipment itself, the risk of the production process, and the risk of economic losses. Finally, based on the risk propagation model and the index system, the risk prevention and control plan is formulated by effectively selecting the target for regulation of load equipment within industrial users. A simulation analysis is conducted using industrial users of steel mills to verify the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed method.

     

/

返回文章
返回