马宏忠, 肖雨松, 孙永腾, 李勇, 朱雷, 许洪华. 基于ICEEMDAN和时变权重集成预测模型的变压器油中溶解气体含量预测[J]. 高电压技术, 2024, 50(1): 210-220. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20230043
引用本文: 马宏忠, 肖雨松, 孙永腾, 李勇, 朱雷, 许洪华. 基于ICEEMDAN和时变权重集成预测模型的变压器油中溶解气体含量预测[J]. 高电压技术, 2024, 50(1): 210-220. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20230043
MA Hongzhong, XIAO Yusong, SUN Yongteng, LI Yong, ZHU Lei, XU Honghua. Prediction of Dissolved Gas Concentration in Transformer Oil Based on ICEEMDAN and Time-varying Weight Integrated Prediction Model[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2024, 50(1): 210-220. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20230043
Citation: MA Hongzhong, XIAO Yusong, SUN Yongteng, LI Yong, ZHU Lei, XU Honghua. Prediction of Dissolved Gas Concentration in Transformer Oil Based on ICEEMDAN and Time-varying Weight Integrated Prediction Model[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2024, 50(1): 210-220. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20230043

基于ICEEMDAN和时变权重集成预测模型的变压器油中溶解气体含量预测

Prediction of Dissolved Gas Concentration in Transformer Oil Based on ICEEMDAN and Time-varying Weight Integrated Prediction Model

  • 摘要: 为了实现对变压器油中溶解气体体积分数的精确预测,同时克服仅使用单一预测模型导致预测精度及泛化能力不足的局限,提出了一种基于改进完全自适应噪声集合经验模态分解(improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition,ICEEMDAN)和灰色关联系数时变权重集成预测模型的变压器油中溶解气体预测方法。首先将溶解气体含量序列模态分解为一系列具有不同时间尺度的子序列。然后,使用门控循环神经网络和麻雀搜索算法优化支持向量机对各子序列进行训练,组合为一个集成预测模型;并比较不同预测方法的预测精度,计算灰色关联系数时变权重,形成各子系列的预测结果。最后将各子序列的预测结果叠加重构,得到最终预测结果。算例分析结果显示:该方法单步预测的均方根误差、平均绝对误差和相关系数分别为0.593、0.422和0.768,相比其他算法在预测精度上有明显提升,同时具有很强的泛化性能,可以为油浸式变压器内部状态监测提供依据。

     

    Abstract: In order to accurately predict the volume fraction of dissolved gas in transformer oil and overcome the limitation that only using a single prediction model will facilitate a poor prediction accuracy and generalization performance, we put forward a prediction method of dissolved gas in transformer oil based on improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (ICEEMDAN) and gray relational coefficient time-varying weight integrated prediction model. Firstly, the dissolved gas volume fraction sequences were decomposed into a series of subsequences with different time scales. Then, the gated recurrent unit (GRU) and sparrow search algorithm optimized support vector machine(SVM) were used to train each subsequence, and an integrated prediction model was combined; moreover, the prediction accuracy of different prediction methods were compared to calculate the time-varying weight of gray relational coefficient and form the prediction results of each sub series. Finally, the prediction results of each subsequence were superposed and reconstructed to obtain the final prediction results. The analysis result of the example shows that the root mean square error (RMSE), average absolute error (MAE) and correlation coefficient (R2) of single step prediction of this model are 0.593, 0.422, and 0.768, respectively, which has significantly improved the prediction accuracy compared with other algorithms, and it has a strong generalization performance. Therefore, the research results can provide a basis for the internal state monitoring of oil immersed transformers.

     

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