董存, 王铮, 白捷予, 蒋建东, 王勃, 刘冠华. 光伏发电功率超短期预测方法综述[J]. 高电压技术, 2023, 49(7): 2938-2951. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20220974
引用本文: 董存, 王铮, 白捷予, 蒋建东, 王勃, 刘冠华. 光伏发电功率超短期预测方法综述[J]. 高电压技术, 2023, 49(7): 2938-2951. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20220974
DONG Cun, WANG Zheng, BAI Jieyu, JIANG Jiandong, WANG Bo, LIU Guanhua. Review of Ultra-short-term Forecasting Methods for Photovoltaic Power Generation[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2023, 49(7): 2938-2951. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20220974
Citation: DONG Cun, WANG Zheng, BAI Jieyu, JIANG Jiandong, WANG Bo, LIU Guanhua. Review of Ultra-short-term Forecasting Methods for Photovoltaic Power Generation[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2023, 49(7): 2938-2951. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20220974

光伏发电功率超短期预测方法综述

Review of Ultra-short-term Forecasting Methods for Photovoltaic Power Generation

  • 摘要: 大规模的光伏并网使电网安全问题日益突出,精准的功率预测能为电网安全稳定运行提供可靠的数据支撑。目前,国内外对光伏发电功率超短期预测开展了大量研究,但在其预测精度上还有待进一步的提升。为此,从影响因素、研究方法、预测难点及未来的发展趋势4方面对光伏发电功率超短期预测方法展开综述。首先对光伏发电的影响因素及预测方法进行归纳总结,然后在深入分析基于历史功率数据的预测法、考虑未来气象因素数据的预测法、基于云观测数据预测法以及多种数据组合的预测法的基础上,梳理出目前光伏功率超短期预测所存在的技术难点,最后结合其发展趋势,展望了未来技术研究的攻关方向。

     

    Abstract: Large-scale photovoltaic grid-connection makes the security of power grid increasingly prominent. Accurate power prediction can provide reliable data support for the stable operation of power grid. At present, a lot of research has been carried out on the ultra-short-term prediction of PV at home and abroad, whereas its prediction accuracy needs to be further improved. Therefore, the paper summarizes the four aspects such as influencing factors, research methods, prediction difficulties, and future development trend. Firstly, the influencing factors and forecasting methods of photovoltaic power generation are summarized. Then, on the basis of in-depth analysis of historical power data prediction method, data prediction method considering future meteorological factors, cloud observation data prediction method and a variety of data combination prediction method, the existing technical difficulties are sorted out. Finally, the prospects in future research directions of technology are put forward.

     

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