Abstract:
To achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization, the requirements for China's carbon emission reduction process are clearly put forward; however, there is still a lack of complete energy transformation planning scheme in various regions. Therefore, relying on the whole county's roof distributed photovoltaic development pilot and considering the electrification transformation of the energy industry, this paper establishes a two-stage robust planning model considering carbon neutrality constraints. Firstly, according to the land use information and the theory of energy flow diagram, the regional carbon sink and carbon source accounting system is established, and the multi-time-scale carbon index is proposed for the operation of the carbon network. Then, in the first stage, the electrification transformation proportion and the power grid planning scheme are decided. In the second stage, the operation variables are determined through the electricity carbon coupling operation simulation with taking into account the uncertainty of photovoltaic, load and carbon sink, so as to effectively deal with the impact of the uncertainty at the operation level on the planning results. Moreover, the column constraint generation algorithm is used to solve the transformation planning. Finally, a simulation example based on a county level region in Guangdong Province verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the proposed model can optimize the regional energy structure, reduce net carbon emissions, thereby promoting the achievement of regional carbon neutrality goals. The results can provide scientific support for the government to formulate energy transformation policies.