周远翔, 葛佳敏, 陈健宁, 白正. 基于巡视文本挖掘的配电设备运行环境风险预测[J]. 高电压技术, 2022, 48(4): 1213-1225. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20211924
引用本文: 周远翔, 葛佳敏, 陈健宁, 白正. 基于巡视文本挖掘的配电设备运行环境风险预测[J]. 高电压技术, 2022, 48(4): 1213-1225. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20211924
ZHOU Yuanxiang, GE Jiamin, CHEN Jianning, BAI Zheng. Risk Prediction for Operational Environments of Power Distribution Equipment Based on Inspection Text Mining[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2022, 48(4): 1213-1225. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20211924
Citation: ZHOU Yuanxiang, GE Jiamin, CHEN Jianning, BAI Zheng. Risk Prediction for Operational Environments of Power Distribution Equipment Based on Inspection Text Mining[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2022, 48(4): 1213-1225. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20211924

基于巡视文本挖掘的配电设备运行环境风险预测

Risk Prediction for Operational Environments of Power Distribution Equipment Based on Inspection Text Mining

  • 摘要: 配电设备运行过程中容易受到自然灾害、人为活动、树障、鸟害等综合影响,通过对配电设备的历史巡视记录进行信息挖掘,可为设备风险预警、巡视策略优化提供支撑。为此,提出一种多尺度循环卷积神经网络(multi-scale recurrent convolutional neural network,MRCNN)模型对巡视文本进行环境风险等级分类,并在此结果上进一步提出了最大信息系数–切比雪夫图卷积神经网络(maximum information coefficient-Chebyshev graph convolutional network,MIC-ChebNet)模型对环境风险度进行预测。首先,基于字符级的文本表示方法和多尺度循环卷积神经网络对巡视记录进行分类,得到巡视记录对应的环境风险等级;然后,对该地区进行网格划分,统计网格中的环境风险度,根据最大信息系数矩阵生成图网络,并基于MIC-ChebNet对网格中的环境风险度进行时间序列预测;最后对MRCNN模型的分类效果和MIC-ChebNet的预测结果进行评价。实际数据验证结果表明,进行文本分类时,MRCNN模型的分类准确率达到92.40%,较BiLSTM和RCNN分别提高了1.03%和0.76%;进行环境风险度预测时,MIC-ChebNet的平均相对误差和均方根误差分别为0.06和0.12,相较于XGBoost分别下降了73.91%和82.86%。该方法可有效对巡视记录中的区域风险度信息进行提取,并准确对未来6 d后设备运行环境风险的空间分布进行预测,为优化巡视周期和路线提供参考。

     

    Abstract: The power distribution equipment is easily affected by natural disasters, human activities, tree barriers, bird damage, etc. during operation. Information reusing of the historical inspection records of power distribution equipment can support for equipment risk early warning and patrol strategy optimization. Consequently, the multi-scale recurrent convolutional neural network (MRCNN) is proposed to classify inspection text, and the maximum information coefficient-Chebyshev graph convolutional network (MIC-ChebNet) is proposed to predict the environmental risk coefficient in this paper. First, the MRCNN was employed to classify the inspection records based on the character embedding to obtain the environmental risk coefficient of various power distribution equipment corresponding to the inspection text. Then, the inspection area was divided into multi grids, the environmental risk in the grid was counted, and the graph was built according to the maximum information coefficient matrix. Moreover, the environmental risk in the grid was calculated and the time series was generated, of which the prediction was conducted based on the MIC-ChebNet. Finally, we evaluated the classification effect of the MRCNN and the prediction results of MIC-ChebNet. Verified by industry data, the results show that the classification accuracy of the MRCNN reaches 92.40%, which is 1.03% and 0.76% higher than that of BiLSTM and RCNN, respectively. In environmental risk prediction, the average relative error and root mean square error of MIC-ChebNet are 0.06 and 0.12, respectively, which decrease by 73.91% and 82.86% compared to those of XGBoost. This method can be adopted to effectively extract the regional risk information in the inspection record, and accurately predict the spatial distribution of the equipment operating environment risk in the next 6 days, providing reference for optimizing the inspection cycle and route.

     

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