赵静波, 黄强, 赵香, 唐鹏程, 柳伟. 基于模糊化动态评估的新能源消纳制约因素分析[J]. 高电压技术, 2022, 48(4): 1286-1295. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20210930
引用本文: 赵静波, 黄强, 赵香, 唐鹏程, 柳伟. 基于模糊化动态评估的新能源消纳制约因素分析[J]. 高电压技术, 2022, 48(4): 1286-1295. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20210930
ZHAO Jingbo, HUANG Qiang, ZHAO Xiang, TANG Pengcheng, LIU Wei. Analysis of Restrictive Factors of New Energy Consumption Based on Fuzzy Dynamic Evaluation[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2022, 48(4): 1286-1295. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20210930
Citation: ZHAO Jingbo, HUANG Qiang, ZHAO Xiang, TANG Pengcheng, LIU Wei. Analysis of Restrictive Factors of New Energy Consumption Based on Fuzzy Dynamic Evaluation[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2022, 48(4): 1286-1295. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20210930

基于模糊化动态评估的新能源消纳制约因素分析

Analysis of Restrictive Factors of New Energy Consumption Based on Fuzzy Dynamic Evaluation

  • 摘要: 在绿色低碳经济大力倡导、“碳达峰、碳中和”能源政策加速部署背景下,新能源消纳问题日益凸显。因此,亟需分析新能源消纳的关键制约因素并进行综合量化评估,为新能源消纳问题的改善及解决提供依据。从“源网荷”以及调峰4方面构建新能源消纳制约因素多层级评估指标体系,提出一种结合模糊隶属度与动态弯曲算法(dynamic time warping,DTW)的模糊化动态评估方法,以样本模糊化的方法增加序列元素间差异性以避免模式匹配的错误,从而更客观地评估出影响新能源消纳的不同层级制约因素。仿真结果表明,该模糊化动态评估方法不仅能全面准确地对新能源消纳制约因素进行综合评估,还能为电网新能源消纳问题的解决提供数据支撑。

     

    Abstract: The strong advocacy of low carbon economy and the deployment of 'carbon peak and carbon neutral energy' require that the solution of new energy consumption should be accelerated. Therefore, it is urgent to analyze the restrictive factors of new energy consumption and carry out comprehensive quantitative assessment, so as to provide a basis for the improvement and solution of new energy consumption. In this study, an integrated evaluation index of new energy consumption restriction factors is constructed from three aspects of 'source and network load'. Then, a new fuzzy dynamic evaluation algorithm is proposed to comprehensively evaluate the restriction degree of new energy consumption which combines fuzzy membership de-gree and dynamic time warping, and the primary restriction factor is also identified by fuzzy membership degree. The simulation results show that the fuzzy dynamic evaluation method can be adopted to not only comprehensively and accurately evaluate the constraints of new energy consumption, but also provide data support for the solution of new energy consumption in power grid.

     

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