联合长短期记忆神经网络和粒子滤波的配电网预测辅助鲁棒状态估计方法
Robust Forecasting-aided State Estimation Method of Distribution Network Based on Long-short Term Memory Neural Network and Particle Filter
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摘要: 针对配电系统状态估计(distribution network state estimation, DNSE)中量测数据存在非高斯噪声、异常以及缺失的关键问题,提出了一种联合长短期记忆神经网络(long short term memory, LSTM)和粒子滤波(particle filter, PF)的配电网预测辅助鲁棒状态估计方法(robust forecasting-aided state estimation, FASE),以实现对配电网运行状态的实时动态估计。基于配电系统的历史运行数据建立了深层LSTM预测模型,采用改进的PF构建量测和状态之间的非线性模型。针对量测缺失或异常问题,采用孤立森林异常检测技术准确识别量测信息中的异常数据。基于此,结合深层LSTM预测值经潮流计算(power flow calculation, PFC)得到的伪量测可实现对缺失和异常数据的替换。此外,提出的联合长短期记忆神经网络和粒子滤波的电力系统预测辅助状态估计方法(long short term memory-particle filter, LSTM-PF)可以实现对拓扑结构改变后的节点状态的预测和估计。对IEEE 33节点标准配电网和某市10 kV 78节点实际配电网测试系统进行了数值仿真,仿真结果表明LSTM-PF算法具有较高的精度和鲁棒性,可为配电网状态估计提供参考。Abstract: To deal with the key problems of non Gaussian noise, anomaly and missing in the measured data in distribution network state estimation (DNSE). This paper presents a robust forecast-aided state estimation method (FASE) on distribution network based on the long- short- term memory and particle filter (LSTM-PF) to realize the real-time dynamic state estimation of distribution network. A deep-seated LSTM is employed to establish the prediction model based on the historical operation data of distribution network, and the nonlinear model between measurement and state is constructed by the improved PF to reformulate nonlinear equations. An isolation forest anomaly detection technology is proposed to accurately identify the bad data in the measurement information. The pseudo measurements obtained by deep-seated LSTM model combining with the power flow calculation can correct the missing and abnormal data. In addition, the LSTM-PF algorithm proposed in this paper can predict and estimate the state of nodes after topology changes. Case studies on the IEEE 33-bus system and 10 kV 78-bus real distribution network system verify the high accuracy and robustness of the proposed LSTM-PF method. This paper can provide a reference for the state estimation of DNSE.