黎静华, 骆怡辰, 杨舒惠, 韦善阳, 黄乾. 可再生能源电力不确定性预测方法综述[J]. 高电压技术, 2021, 47(4): 1144-1155. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20210075
引用本文: 黎静华, 骆怡辰, 杨舒惠, 韦善阳, 黄乾. 可再生能源电力不确定性预测方法综述[J]. 高电压技术, 2021, 47(4): 1144-1155. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20210075
LI Jinghua, LUO Yichen, YANG Shuhui, WEI Shanyang, HUANG Qian. Review of Uncertainty Forecasting Methods for Renewable Energy Power[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2021, 47(4): 1144-1155. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20210075
Citation: LI Jinghua, LUO Yichen, YANG Shuhui, WEI Shanyang, HUANG Qian. Review of Uncertainty Forecasting Methods for Renewable Energy Power[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2021, 47(4): 1144-1155. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20210075

可再生能源电力不确定性预测方法综述

Review of Uncertainty Forecasting Methods for Renewable Energy Power

  • 摘要: 开展可再生能源电力不确定性预测对于提升可再生能源的消纳能力,保证电力系统安全稳定运行具有重要意义。不确定性预测是当前的研究热点,主要包括区间预测、概率预测和场景预测。相比于确定性预测,不确定性预测能够提供更丰富的信息,可以从变化区间、发生的概率以及可能出现的场景等更多维度去反映可再生能源电力的不确定性。论文以区间预测、概率预测和场景预测为线索,对可再生能源电力不确定性预测技术进行了归纳、总结和梳理。从相关文献发表的数量、年份、期刊的分布等多个方面对可再生能源电力不确定性预测的发展现状及趋势进行了分析;从预测结果的形式对不确定性预测的内容进行了分类介绍;阐述了区间预测、概率预测与场景预测的理论与模型,并对不确定性预测的评价指标进行了总结分析;最后结合可再生能源电力预测的研究现状和发展趋势,提出了未来值得关注的研究内容。研究成果为可再生能源电力不确定性预测研究提供参考。

     

    Abstract: Uncertainty forecasting of renewable energy power is of great significance to improve the capacity of renewable energy consumption and ensure the power systems' safe and stable operation. Uncertainty forecasting, which includes interval forecasting, probability forecasting, and scenario generation, is a hot research topic. Compared with deterministic forecasting, uncertain forecasting can provide richer information and reflect the uncertainty of renewable energy power from more dimensions such as the change interval, the probability of occurrence, and the possible scenarios. Based on the clues of interval forecasting, probability forecasting, and scenario generation, this paper summarizes the uncertainty forecasting techniques of renewable energy power. The development trend of uncertainty forecasting of renewable energy power is analyzed from the number of published papers, year, distribution of journals, and other aspects. The classification of uncertainty forecasting technology is introduced. The theory and model of uncertainty forecasting are described, and the existing renewable energy power forecasting system and uncertainty forecasting evaluation indexes are summarized and analyzed. Finally, combined with the research status and development trend of renewable energy power forecasting, the research direction worthy of attention is put forward. The research results of this paper provide references for the research on uncertainty forecasting of renewable energy power.

     

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