陈海鹏, 周越豪, 王趁录, 王俊祺, 韩皓, 吕鑫升. 基于改进的CNN-LSTM短期风功率预测的系统旋转备用经济性分析[J]. 高电压技术, 2022, 48(2): 439-446. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20201850
引用本文: 陈海鹏, 周越豪, 王趁录, 王俊祺, 韩皓, 吕鑫升. 基于改进的CNN-LSTM短期风功率预测的系统旋转备用经济性分析[J]. 高电压技术, 2022, 48(2): 439-446. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20201850
CHEN Haipeng, ZHOU Yuehao, WANG Chenlu, WANG Junqi, HAN Hao, LÜ Xinsheng. Economic Analysis of System Spinning Reserve Based on Improved CNN-LSTM Short Term Wind Power Prediction[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2022, 48(2): 439-446. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20201850
Citation: CHEN Haipeng, ZHOU Yuehao, WANG Chenlu, WANG Junqi, HAN Hao, LÜ Xinsheng. Economic Analysis of System Spinning Reserve Based on Improved CNN-LSTM Short Term Wind Power Prediction[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2022, 48(2): 439-446. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20201850

基于改进的CNN-LSTM短期风功率预测的系统旋转备用经济性分析

Economic Analysis of System Spinning Reserve Based on Improved CNN-LSTM Short Term Wind Power Prediction

  • 摘要: 为更准确地预测短期风功率,提出了一种新型短期风功率预测方法。首先采用Pearson相关系数法对风速、风向等影响因素序列与风功率序列进行相关性分析;其次,利用卷积神经网络(convolution neural network,CNN)对输入的时序序列进行特征提取;然后在长短期记忆(long short-term memory,LSTM)网络基础上新增一个遗忘门和一个输入门,形成具有多级门控的LSTM网络,并且结合CNN建立能够提高输入序列特征提取能力和预测精度的改进的CNN-LSTM短期风功率预测模型;最后,以甘肃省某风电场实测数据进行仿真分析,并将预测结果作为制定调度计划的依据,分析不同预测结果对系统运行成本的影响。仿真结果表明:相比LSTM模型与CNN-LSTM模型,采用所提模型进行预测所得结果的均方根误差分别减少63.9%和47.9%,平均绝对误差分别减少70.4%和53.5%,可在一定程度上提高风功率预测精度。采用该模型的风功率预测结果可以有效减少系统预留的旋转备用容量,降低系统运行成本,能够为调度计划的制定提供有力依据。

     

    Abstract: In order to accurately predict short-term wind power, a new short-term wind power prediction method is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the Pearson correlation coefficient method was used to analyze the correlation between wind speed, wind direction and other influencing factors and wind power series. Secondly, the convolution neural network (CNN) was used to extract the features of the input sequence. Then, a forgetting gate and an input gate were added to the long short-term memory (LSTM) network to form an LSTM network with multi-level gating. Combined with CNN, an improved CNN-LSTM short-term wind power prediction model which can improve the feature extraction ability and prediction accuracy of input sequence was established. Finally, the simulation analysis was performed with the measured data of a wind farm in Gansu Province of China, and the prediction results were used as the basis for making the scheduling plan to analyze the influence of the test results on the operation cost of the system. The simulation results show that, compared with the LSTM model and the CNN-LSTM model, the root mean square error of the results predicted by this model is reduced by 63.9% and 47.9%, respectively, and the mean absolute error is reduced by 70.4% and 53.5%, respectively, which can improve the accuracy of wind power prediction to a certain extent. The wind power prediction results can effectively reduce the reserved spinning reserve capacity of the system and reduce the operation cost of the system, and provide a strong basis for the formulation of dispatching plan.

     

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