于宗超, 刘绚, 严康, 宋宇飞, 周柯. 考虑DLR和风电预测不确定性的机会约束机组组合模型[J]. 高电压技术, 2021, 47(4): 1204-1213. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20201737
引用本文: 于宗超, 刘绚, 严康, 宋宇飞, 周柯. 考虑DLR和风电预测不确定性的机会约束机组组合模型[J]. 高电压技术, 2021, 47(4): 1204-1213. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20201737
YU Zongchao, LIU Xuan, YAN Kang, SONG Yufei, ZHOU Ke. Combination Model of Chance-constrained Security Constraint Unit with Considering the Forecast Uncertainties of DLR and Wind Power[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2021, 47(4): 1204-1213. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20201737
Citation: YU Zongchao, LIU Xuan, YAN Kang, SONG Yufei, ZHOU Ke. Combination Model of Chance-constrained Security Constraint Unit with Considering the Forecast Uncertainties of DLR and Wind Power[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2021, 47(4): 1204-1213. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20201737

考虑DLR和风电预测不确定性的机会约束机组组合模型

Combination Model of Chance-constrained Security Constraint Unit with Considering the Forecast Uncertainties of DLR and Wind Power

  • 摘要: 为了提升电力系统消纳可再生能源的能力,提出了一种考虑动态线路潮流极限(dynamic line rating,DLR)与风电不确定性的机会约束机组组合模型。首先利用埃尔曼(Elman)神经网络与多元自适应回归样条(multivariate adaptive regression splines,MARS),建立起基于熵值法的DLR组合预测模型。其次根据DLR的不确定性制定了DLR机会约束集,构建了考虑DLR与风电不确定性的机会约束机组组合模型。最后,在IEEE-118节点系统上对所提模型进行仿真。仿真结果验证了模型的正确性与有效性,同时表明DLR技术可以明显降低电力系统总运行成本,并且能够大幅度提升电力系统消纳可再生能源的水平。

     

    Abstract: To improve the absorption ability of renewable energy in the power system, we put forward a combination (SCUC) model of chance-constrained day-ahead security constraint unit after considering the uncertainties of dynamic line rating (DLR) and wind power. Firstly, the Elman neural network method and multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) method are used to construct the DLR combination forecasting method based on the entropy evaluation method. Secondly, the uncertainty of DLR is depicted as the chance-constrained of DLR, and corresponding constraints of DLR usages are used to formulate a chance-constrained day-ahead SCUC model with considering the uncertainties of DLR and wind power. Finally, the proposed model is simulated on the IEEE 118-bus system. The simulation results verify the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed model, and reveal that DLR technology can significantly reduce the total operation costs of the power system and greatly improve the absorption ability of renewable energy in the power system.

     

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