涂青宇, 苗世洪, 林毓军, 张迪, 姚福星, 韩佶. 基于动态R藤Copula模型的区域风电集群超短期功率区间预测方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2022, 48(2): 456-466. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20201711
引用本文: 涂青宇, 苗世洪, 林毓军, 张迪, 姚福星, 韩佶. 基于动态R藤Copula模型的区域风电集群超短期功率区间预测方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2022, 48(2): 456-466. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20201711
TU Qingyu, MIAO Shihong, LIN Yujun, ZHANG Di, YAO Fuxing, HAN Ji. Ultra-short-term Interval Forecasting Method for Regional Wind Farms Based on Dynamic R-vine Copula Model[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2022, 48(2): 456-466. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20201711
Citation: TU Qingyu, MIAO Shihong, LIN Yujun, ZHANG Di, YAO Fuxing, HAN Ji. Ultra-short-term Interval Forecasting Method for Regional Wind Farms Based on Dynamic R-vine Copula Model[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2022, 48(2): 456-466. DOI: 10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20201711

基于动态R藤Copula模型的区域风电集群超短期功率区间预测方法

Ultra-short-term Interval Forecasting Method for Regional Wind Farms Based on Dynamic R-vine Copula Model

  • 摘要: 为应对风电功率不确定性问题带来的电网安全稳定运行风险,近年来区间预测方法受到了广泛关注,但现有研究主要集中于单风电场预测领域,对于区域风电集群功率区间预测方法较少涉及。针对上述问题,建立了动态化的R藤Copula模型,提出了区域风电集群超短期功率区间预测方法。首先,详细阐述了区域风电集群超短期功率区间预测的基本框架。其次,简要说明了基于R藤Copula模型建立多风电场预测功率和整体预测误差联合概率分布的方法。然后,分3个步骤建立了动态化的R藤Copula模型,包括:基于ARIMA-GARCH模型建立动态边缘分布模型;引入DCC、Patton模型建立动态Pair Copula模型;提出动态R藤Copula的拓扑结构计算方法。最后,结合新疆东北部9个风电场一年的数据开展了仿真。仿真结果验证了所提模型的有效性,同时表明所提模型的预测结果具有良好的可靠性、锐度和技术得分指标。论文研究可为区域风电集群超短期功率区间预测提供参考。

     

    Abstract: In order to deal with the risk brought by the uncertainty of wind power to the safe operation of power grid, the interval forecasting method has received extensive attention in recent years. However, the existing researches mainly focus on the forecasting method for the single wind farm, and negligibly focus on the methods for regional wind farms. In view of the above problem, the dynamic R-vine Copula model is established in this paper, and the ultra-short-term interval forecasting method for regional wind farms is proposed. Firstly, the framework of the ultra-short-term interval forecasting method is described in detail. Secondly, the method of establishing the joint probability distribution of the forecast power and total forecast error for multiple wind farms based on the R-vine Copula model is briefly introduced. Then, the dynamic R-vine Copula model is established in three steps as follows: the dynamic marginal distribution model is established based on the ARIMA-GARCH model; the DCC and Patton models are introduced to establish the dynamic Pair Copula model; on this basis, the calculation method for the topology structure of the dynamic R-vine Copula is proposed. Finally, the case study is carried out based on the data from 9 wind farms in Xinjiang Autonomous Region (Northeast of China) for one year. The simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed model, and show that the forecasting results of the proposed model have good reliability, sharpness and skill score indexes. The research can provide a reference for the topic of the prediction of ultra-short-term interval forecasting for regional wind farms.

     

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