Abstract:
The intensity of lightning activity and the randomness of lightning points are the main factors that affect the lightning trip rate. In order to comprehensively consider the regional differences and randomness of lightning activities and improve the calculation accuracy of lightning trip rate, a lightning trip rate calculation model based on the Monte Carlo method considering the characteristics of lightning activity is established. According to the principle of lightning trip, a function expression of lightning trip rate which is only related to the lightning activity intensity, and the randomness parameters of lightning point is established. In order to consider the characteristics of lightning activity, the lightning data of the lightning location system(LLS) are utilized, the outlier analysis is performed using the median absolute deviation method, and a cumulative probability distribution model of lightning current magnitude and ground lightning density are obtained by using nonlinear least square method and descriptive statistical method. The Monte Carlo method is used to solve the random problems such as the location of lightning strike, the magnitude of lightning current, and the lightning strike line. In order to consider the influence of trees and buildings, an improved electrical geometric model method based on shielding factors is proposed to determine the range of lightning. Based on the above work, a calculation model of lightning trip rate of 10 kV distribution lines based on the Monte Carlo method considering the characteristics of lightning activity is established. The research results show that the final calculation result is 17.46 times/(100km·a), and the error is only 1.4% compared with the actual statistical result of 17.22 times/(100km·a). The statistical results of actual lightning parameters are used to optimize the calculation of the lightning trip rate and significantly improve the accuracy of the results.