考虑匮风与水文干旱的跨大区输电送、受端电源出力特性及耦合分析

马瑞杰; 周宇杰; 苏盛; 刘韬文; 杨洪明; 王进

doi:doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2049

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考虑匮风与水文干旱的跨大区输电送、受端电源出力特性及耦合分析

更新时间：2026-04-08

- 考虑匮风与水文干旱的跨大区输电送、受端电源出力特性及耦合分析
- Vol. 47, Issue 3, Pages: 212-221(2026)
- 作者机构：
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2049
  CLC： TM614
- Online First：07 April 2026，
  
  Published：2026
- 稿件说明：
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马瑞杰, 周宇杰, 苏盛, et al. 考虑匮风与水文干旱的跨大区输电送、受端电源出力特性及耦合分析[J]. 2026, 47(3): 212-221.
DOI：

马瑞杰, 周宇杰, 苏盛, et al. 考虑匮风与水文干旱的跨大区输电送、受端电源出力特性及耦合分析[J]. 2026, 47(3): 212-221. DOI： doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-2049.

摘要

由于缺乏高比例清洁能源跨大区输电实际系统的长期运行经验

提出基于气象数据反演的匮风事件评估方法

结合ERA5再分析气象数据与风力机出力模型

反演历史小时尺度区域风电出力序列

分析年际和季节性匮风强度与持续时间。结合甘肃与湖南两省气象与水文数据

计算得到多年逐月匮风强度和水文干旱指标

划分水电与风电耦合性等级

据此分析送、受端电源出力季节特性和年际变化特性

识别指出送、受端风电、水电出力不足的变化规律。

Abstract

The transmission of clean energy sources

such as wind power from the Northwest

across regions to southern provinces with primary energy shortages

is a crucial support for building a diversified clean energy supply system. The output of high-proportion hydropower in the southern receiving grids and wind power in the northern sending grids can be significantly affected by hydrological droughts and widespread low-output wind power events

respectively. This poses severe challenges to ensuring a stable power supply. Due to the lack of long-term operational experience with high-proportion clean energy transmission systems across large regions

a wind power shortage event assessment method based on meteorological data inversion is proposed. By combining ERA5 reanalysis meteorological data with wind turbine power output models

and constructing hourly time series of regional wind power capacity factors

the interannual and seasonal wind power shortage intensity and duration are analyzed. Using meteorological and hydrological data from Gansu and Hunan provinces

the monthly wind power shortage intensity and hydrological drought indices over several years are calculated. The coupling levels between hydropower and wind power are classified accordingly

and the seasonal characteristics and interannual variations of the output from both sending and receiving end power sources are analyzed

and the patterns of insufficient output from wind and hydropower at both ends are identified.

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references

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