基于改进相空间重构和多通道卷积-FPN网络的光伏功率短期预测

赵欣; 罗嘉宾; 姜安琦; 胡皓; 马宇坤; 张淑清

doi:doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1239

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基于改进相空间重构和多通道卷积-FPN网络的光伏功率短期预测

更新时间：2025-12-10

- 基于改进相空间重构和多通道卷积-FPN网络的光伏功率短期预测
- Issue 11, Pages: 299-307(2025)
- 作者机构：
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- DOI：doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1239
  CLC： P181
- Published Online：04 December 2025，
  
  Published：04 December 2025
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赵欣, 罗嘉宾, 姜安琦, et al. 基于改进相空间重构和多通道卷积-FPN网络的光伏功率短期预测[J]. 2025, (11): 299-307.
DOI：

赵欣, 罗嘉宾, 姜安琦, et al. 基于改进相空间重构和多通道卷积-FPN网络的光伏功率短期预测[J]. 2025, (11): 299-307. DOI： doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-1239.

摘要

针对光伏功率不确定性大导致其预测精度不高的问题

提出一种基于改进相空间重构和多通道卷积-FPN网络的光伏功率短期预测方法。首先改进了相空间重构的方法

通过基于符号分析的极大联合熵求取延迟时间

减少计算量;通过改进Cao算法快速自动确定打开混沌结构的嵌入维数

具有准确性和高效性。再用改进相空间方法重构光伏功率

并证明其有混沌特性

经过多通道卷积神经网络（Mul-CNN）提取混沌特征

同时利用FPN网络

将光伏功率混沌特征与气象等特征进行特征融合作为FPN网络的动态输入特征

充分挖掘数据间的空间特征

最后通过多个全连接层得到预测结果。该方法在国内公开数据集上做应用实验

通过与其他网络模型相比

证明该预测模型的准确度更高。

Abstract

Aiming at the problem that the large uncertainty of PV power leads to its low prediction accuracy

a short-term prediction method of PV power based on improved phase space reconstruction and multi-channel convolution-feature pyramid networks（FPN） is proposed. Firstly

the phase space reconstruction method is improved to reduce the computation by finding the delay time via maximum joint entropy based on symbolic analysis

and the embedding dimension for unfolding the chaotic structure is quickly and automatically determined by the improved Cao algorithm

which has accuracy and efficiency. Then we reconstruct the PV power with the improved phase space method and prove that it has chaotic characteristics

extract the chaotic features by multi-channel convolutional neural network （Mul-CNN）

and at the same time

utilize the FPN network to fuse the chaotic features of the PV power with the meteorological features as the dynamic input features of the FPN network

to fully exploit the chaotic features of the FPN network. network

fully exploiting the spatial features between the data

and finally obtaining the prediction results through multiple fully connected layers. The method is evaluated on a domestic public dataset to do experiments

and compared with other network models

it proves that the prediction model is more accurate.

关键词

Keywords

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