风电机组轴承剩余使用寿命预测研究

刘军; 安柏任; 刘格; 张维博; 马琛凯; 葛磊

doi:doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0955

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风电机组轴承剩余使用寿命预测研究

更新时间：2025-12-17

- 风电机组轴承剩余使用寿命预测研究
- Issue 10, Pages: 589-595(2025)
- 作者机构：
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0955
  CLC： M31
- Published Online：31 October 2025，
  
  Published：31 October 2025
- 稿件说明：
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刘军, 安柏任, 刘格, et al. 风电机组轴承剩余使用寿命预测研究[J]. 2025, (10): 589-595.
DOI：

刘军, 安柏任, 刘格, et al. 风电机组轴承剩余使用寿命预测研究[J]. 2025, (10): 589-595. DOI： doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2024-0955.

摘要

该文针对风电机组轴承剩余寿命预测误差较大的问题

建立一种新型的寿命预测模型

考虑了寿命预测失效阈值的随机性

采用极大似然法估计模型中的参数

并依据贝叶斯理论对模型参数进行更新

同时

针对预测模型本身的误差会随时间累积

进而影响寿命预测的精确度问题

建立误差修正模型

并求解剩余使用寿命的概率分布

进而得到其剩余使用寿命。采用该文所建立的预测模型对风电机组轴承的剩余寿命进行预测

验证了所提策略的有效性。

Abstract

This article establishes a new type of life prediction model to address the issue of large prediction errors in the remaining life of wind turbine bearings. This model considers the randomness of the failure threshold for life prediction

uses the maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters in the model

and updates the parameters based on Bayesian theory. At the same time

considering that the errors of the prediction model itself will accumulate over time

which will affect the accuracy of life prediction

an error correction model is established

and the distribution of its remaining service life was solved. The prediction model established in this article was used to predict the remaining life of wind turbine bearings

verifying the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

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references

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