accurate prediction of battery electric vehicle arrival time for battery swapping and strategic charging scheduling based on time-of-use electricity pricing are essential. This paper proposes a CatBoost model optimized by a genetic algorithm (GA)
which can accurately predicts vehicle arrivals for battery swapping. Based on the prediction results
the model enables optimal planning of charging ports during peak periods. Furthermore
an integrated photovoltaic and energy storage system is introduced to reduce the average electricity purchase cost. The results demonstrate that through SHAP summary plots and SHAP dependence plots
state-of-charge (SOC)
time
and distance are identified as the most influential features affecting model performance. The GA-CatBoost model outperforms three other prediction models in terms of accuracy
precision
recall
and F1 score. Based on the prediction outcomes
a multi-objective charging scheduling strategy is implemented for peak periods
significantly reducing the average electricity purchase cost while ensuring sufficient battery swapping services. Finally
with the introduction of a photovoltaic-storage system and simulation of the time-of-use pricing operation mode for an integrated system
the visual analysis of power flow and electricity cost validates the effectiveness of the system in optimizing electricity pricing
further reducing the station's electricity procurement costs.
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