WEI Chuanning. Wind power forecasting based on modal decomposition and TCN – transformer[J]. Ningxia Electric Power, 2026, (3).
DOI:
WEI Chuanning. Wind power forecasting based on modal decomposition and TCN – transformer[J]. Ningxia Electric Power, 2026, (3).DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-3643.2026.03.003.
Wind power forecasting based on modal decomposition and TCN – transformer
To address the challenge of accurate forecasting posed by the randomness and volatility of wind power output
this paper proposes a hybrid prediction model named CEEMDAN-CPO-TCN-Transformer
based on a decomposition-optimization-deep learning integration framework. The model combines complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN)
the crested porcupine optimizer (CPO)
temporal convolutional network (TCN)
and Transformer. First
the original power series is decomposed into multiple intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) using CEEMDAN. These IMFs are then reconstructed into high
medium
and low-frequency subsequences by integrating sample entropy (SE) and K-means clustering
the CPO algorithm is utilized to optimize the hyperparameters of TCN and Transformer
where TCN captures multi-scale local features and Transformer models global long-term dependencies. The final wind power prediction is obtained by aggregating the forecasted results of all subsequences. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model significantly outperforms baseline models such as TCN
Transformer
and VMD-TCN-Transformer in terms of mean absolute error (MAE)
root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2)
exhibiting superior prediction accuracy and generalization capability.