江 山, 李 卫, 汤子琪. Short-term power load forecasting method for industry based on multi scale weight adaptation and bidirectional gated recurrent unit[J]. 2025, 27(6).
DOI:
江 山, 李 卫, 汤子琪. Short-term power load forecasting method for industry based on multi scale weight adaptation and bidirectional gated recurrent unit[J]. 2025, 27(6). DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2025.06.015.
Short-term power load forecasting method for industry based on multi scale weight adaptation and bidirectional gated recurrent unit
工业企业历史用电负荷数据具有波动性强与时序性复杂的特点,为准确预测用电负荷带来了一定的挑战。针对此问题,提出一种基于多尺度权重适配和双向门控循环单元(multi scale weight adaptation and bidirectional gated recurrent unit,MSWA-Bi?GRU)的工业企业短期负荷预测方法。模型由权重适配层、BiGRU层、特征嵌入层与全连接预测层组成。首先,利用权重适配层自适应生成对不同时间尺度负荷数据的依赖热力系数进行加权,然后基于BiGRU层同时学习历史负荷序列多尺度上的瞬态波动性特征与稳态周期性特征,再利用特征嵌入层对其他特征进行建模,最终将时序特征与其他特征融合,由全连接预测层获得最终负荷预测结果。通过真实用电负荷数据进行案例分析,结果表明,所提出方法的预测性能优于其他方法,验证了该方法的有效性与可行性。
Abstract
Historical electricity load data of industrial enterprises has the characteristics of strong volatility and complex sequence
which brings challenges for accurately predicting electricity load. In order to solve these problems
a short-term load forecasting method for industry based on multi scale weight adaptation and bidirectional gated recurrent unit(MSWA BiGRU)is proposed. The proposed model is composed by a weight adaptation layer
a BiGRU layer
a feature embedding layer
and a fully connected prediction layer. Firstly
the weight adaptation layer adaptively generates the dependent thermal coefficients for different time scale load data
and then the BiGRU layer simultaneously learnes the transient fluctuation characteristics and steady-state periodic characteristics of the historical load series on multiple scales. Then
other features is embedded in the feature embedding layer. Finally
the temporal features are fused with other features to obtain the final load prediction result through the fully connected prediction layer. Experimental results on real data of electricity load in industrial and commercial enterprises show that the prediction performance of the proposed method is superior to other methods
thus the effectiveness and feasibility of this method are verified.