Estimation of regional electric vehicle ownership considering master-slave game of carbon trading

王嘉诚; 刘晓峰; 梅文卿; 孙海翔; 季振亚; 刘国宝

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2025.03.011

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Estimation of regional electric vehicle ownership considering master-slave game of carbon trading

更新时间：2026-03-05

- Estimation of regional electric vehicle ownership considering master-slave game of carbon trading
- Vol. 27, Issue 3, (2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 南京师范大学电气与自动化工程学院,南京,210046
  2. 国网江苏省电力有限公司镇江供电分公司,江苏,镇江,212000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2025.03.011
  CLC：
- Published：2025
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
王嘉诚, 刘晓峰, 梅文卿, et al. Estimation of regional electric vehicle ownership considering master-slave game of carbon trading[J]. 2025, 27(3).
DOI：

王嘉诚, 刘晓峰, 梅文卿, et al. Estimation of regional electric vehicle ownership considering master-slave game of carbon trading[J]. 2025, 27(3). DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2025.03.011.

摘要

为了进一步推动电动汽车发展，提出考虑政府、供应商和消费者三方碳交易主从博弈的电动汽车保有量推演方法。首先，基于三方利益诉求，建立以政府为主导的主从博弈模型；其次，综合考虑人群的创新、模仿效应以及价格因素改进Bass模型预测区域电动汽车保有量；进一步地，以博弈下三方的效用函数为目标函数进行优化，从而为改进Bass模型提供参数，进而建立一个保有量预测与车辆市场博弈仿真交替进行的区域电动汽车保有量推演方法。最后，采用上海实际车辆数据，分析将碳交易引入车辆市场对于上海未来几年电动汽车保有量的影响，通过场景对比，验证所提方法具有可行性和经济性。

Abstract

In order to further promote the development of electric vehicles

a method for estimating the ownership of electric vehicles is pro posed considering the master-slave game of carbon trading among the government

suppliers

and consumers. Firstly

based on the interests of the three parties

a master-slave game model led by the government is established. Secondly

considering the innovation

imitation effect

and price factors of the population

the Bass model is improved to predict the regional electric vehicle ownership. Furthermore

the utility functions of the three parties in the game are optimized as the objective function

in order to obtain the basic data under the Nash equilibrium solution for the parameters of the Bass model. And then

establishes a regional electric vehicle ownership prediction method is established by alternating between ownership prediction and vehicle market game simulation. Finally

with actual vehicle data from Shanghai

the impact of introducing carbon trading into the vehicle market on the number of electric vehicles is analyzed in the coming years.Through scenario comparison

the feasibility and economy of the proposed method are verified.

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