Prediction and scenario analysis of regional carbon emissions under dual carbon goals

佘利慧; 汤江晖; 傅质馨; 朱明晞; 许一洲; 刘皓明

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2023.03.010

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Prediction and scenario analysis of regional carbon emissions under dual carbon goals

更新时间：2026-03-05

- Prediction and scenario analysis of regional carbon emissions under dual carbon goals
- Vol. 25, Issue 3, (2023)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 河海大学能源与电气学院,南京,211100
  2. 国网（北京）综合能源规划设计研究院有限公司,北京,100052
  3. 国网国际发展有限公司市场开发部,北京,100031
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2023.03.010
  CLC：
- Published：2023
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
佘利慧, 汤江晖, 傅质馨, et al. Prediction and scenario analysis of regional carbon emissions under dual carbon goals[J]. 2023, 25(3).
DOI：

佘利慧, 汤江晖, 傅质馨, et al. Prediction and scenario analysis of regional carbon emissions under dual carbon goals[J]. 2023, 25(3). DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2023.03.010.

摘要

在双碳目标背景下，针对城市碳排放路径预测，提出了一种区域碳排放预测方法。通过马尔科夫模型与长期能源替代规划系统（LEAP）模型，实现对各行业的能源消费结构与能源需求量的预测。在此基础上，通过计算各能源的碳排放因子，并考虑能源结构优化与能源需求降低对碳排放的影响，预测不同情景下的区域碳排放量。最终，以中国某城市为例开展了区域碳排放路径预测的案例分析，结果表明，所提方法可以有效预测出区域的碳排放量及不同政策与技术发展对碳排放路径的影响。

Abstract

Under the background of the double carbon target

a regional carbon emission prediction method is proposed for urban carbon emission path prediction. Firstly

based on Markov model and long-range energy alternatives planning system（LEAP）model

the energy consumption structure and energy demand of various industries in the region are predicted. Secondly

by calculating the carbon emission factors of each energy source and considering the impact of energy structure optimization and energy demand reduction on carbon emissions

the regional carbon emissions are calculated under different scenarios. Finally

a case study of regional carbon emission path prediction is carried out with a certain city in China as an example. The results show that the proposed method can effectively predict the regional carbon emissions and the impact of different policies and technological development on the carbon emission path.

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