Two⁃stage simulation research on subsidy decline and grid parity for residential photovoltaic power generation

王 欣; 谢文华

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2021.05.015

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Two⁃stage simulation research on subsidy decline and grid parity for residential photovoltaic power generation

更新时间：2026-03-05

- Two⁃stage simulation research on subsidy decline and grid parity for residential photovoltaic power generation
- Vol. 23, Issue 5, (2021)
- 作者机构：
  
  东北电力大学经济管理学院,吉林,吉林,132000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2021.05.015
  CLC：
- Published：2021
- 稿件说明：
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王欣, 谢文华. Two⁃stage simulation research on subsidy decline and grid parity for residential photovoltaic power generation[J]. 2021, 23(5).
DOI：

王欣, 谢文华. Two⁃stage simulation research on subsidy decline and grid parity for residential photovoltaic power generation[J]. 2021, 23(5). DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2021.05.015.

摘要

基于分布式户用光伏发电补贴退坡和平价上网两阶段构建系统动力学模型。首先，在对历年补贴退坡情况进行分析研究的基础之上，按照一定的下调比例对补贴退坡进程中户用光伏的装机量、投资意愿和单位装机成本进行预测。其次，模拟其步入平价上网阶段后各指标的发展趋势，得到2020年至2028年户用光伏发展的仿真结果。最后，使用算例验证模型有效性。算例表明，户用光伏将在2022年由补贴退坡转入平价上网阶段，并且到2025年左右将正式从平价上网的适应阶段过渡至发展阶段。

Abstract

According to the two stage of subsidy decline and grid parity

a model of system dynamics is constructed. Firstly

based on the analysis of the decline of subsidies in the past few years

it is predicted of the installed capacity

investment willingness and unit installed cost of residential photovoltaic in the process of subsidy decline according to a certain reduction ratio. Then

the development trend of each index after it enters the stage of grid parity is simulated. The simulation results of residential photovoltaic development from 2020 to 2028 are obtained. Finally

an example is used to verify the validity of the model. The example shows that residential photovoltaic will change from subsidy decline to the stage of grid parity in 2022

and it will officially transition from the adaptation stage to the development stage of grid parity access by around 2025.

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