Study on the forecasting model of monthly power load based on economic and meteorological factors

汪付华; 周后福; 戴金源; 张屏; 董平安; 张怀念; 刘璐

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2020.05.015

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Study on the forecasting model of monthly power load based on economic and meteorological factors

更新时间：2026-03-05

- Study on the forecasting model of monthly power load based on economic and meteorological factors
- Vol. 22, Issue 5, (2020)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 安徽省淮北市气象局,安徽,淮北,235037
  2. 安徽省气象科学研究所,合肥,230031
  3. 国网淮北供电公司,安徽,淮北,235000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2020.05.015
  CLC：
- Published：2020
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
汪付华, 周后福, 戴金源, et al. Study on the forecasting model of monthly power load based on economic and meteorological factors[J]. 2020, 22(5).
DOI：

汪付华, 周后福, 戴金源, et al. Study on the forecasting model of monthly power load based on economic and meteorological factors[J]. 2020, 22(5). DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2020.05.015.

摘要

基于 2012—2018 年安徽省淮北地区月用电负荷、宏观经济数据和气象观测资料，运用相关分析、多元回归分析和曲线拟合等方法，将实际用电负荷分解为趋势负荷和波动负荷，分析趋势负荷与经济数据的关系建立基于经济指标的趋势负荷预测模型，拟合率达到 99.3%；研究波动负荷与气象因子的关系建立基于气象因子的波动负荷预测模型，拟合率达到 97.8%；经测试模型的泛化能力较高，符合设计要求。将研究成果作为新的服务手段为电力部门提供更加专业、定量的服务产品，为淮北电网运营调度提供科学依据，取得了明显的社会经济效益。

Abstract

Based on the electric load

macroeconomic data and meteorological observation data in Huaibei of Anhui from 2012 to 2018

some equations are built by using correlation analysis

multiple regression analysis and curve fitting method. The actual power load is divided into trend load and fluctuating load. The trend load forecast model is established based on economic index after the relationship between trend load and economic data is analyzed. The fitting rate of the model reaches 99.3% . The forecast model of fluctuating load is built based on meteorological factors after the relationship between fluctuating load and meteorological factors are analyzed. The fitting rate of the model reaches 97.8%.The application of these results provides scientific basis for operation and dispatch of Huaibei Power Grid

and it has achieved obvious social and economic benefits.

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