Probabilistic energy flow analysis of the combined heat and electricity system based on quasi⁃monte carlo simulation method

唐建清; 勇晔; 薛溟枫; 仲磊磊; 卫志农

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2019.04.006

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Probabilistic energy flow analysis of the combined heat and electricity system based on quasi⁃monte carlo simulation method

更新时间：2026-03-05

- Probabilistic energy flow analysis of the combined heat and electricity system based on quasi⁃monte carlo simulation method
- Vol. 21, Issue 4, (2019)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国网江苏省电力有限公司无锡供电分公司,江苏,无锡,214061
  2. 河海大学能源与电气学院,南京,211100
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2019.04.006
  CLC：
- Published：2019
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
唐建清, 勇晔, 薛溟枫, et al. Probabilistic energy flow analysis of the combined heat and electricity system based on quasi⁃monte carlo simulation method[J]. 2019, 21(4).
DOI：

唐建清, 勇晔, 薛溟枫, et al. Probabilistic energy flow analysis of the combined heat and electricity system based on quasi⁃monte carlo simulation method[J]. 2019, 21(4). DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2019.04.006.

摘要

电-热联合系统中分布式可再生能源出力波动大、电和热负荷随机变化。建立电-热联合系统含不确定性的稳态能量流模型。通过Sobol点列构造低偏差点列，基于拟蒙特卡罗模拟法对随机变量抽样，考虑随机变量之间的相关性，求解电-热联合系统的概率能量流。算例表明所提方法收敛稳定性好，为后续研究电-热联合系统安全分析奠定了基础。

Abstract

The output of distributed renewable energy fluctuates greatly and the electrical and thermal loads vary randomly in the combined heat and electricity system. A steady state energy flow model with uncertainties for the combined heat and electricity system is established. A low deviation point series through Sobol point series is constructed. Based on the quasimonte carlo simulation method

random variables are sampled

and the correlation between random variables is considered to solve the probabilistic energy flow of the combined heat and electricity system. The case shows that the proposed method has good convergence stability

which lays a foundation for the subsequent research on the safety analysis of the combined heat and electricity system.

关键词

Keywords

references

Views

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

No data

Related Author

No data

Related Institution

No data

AI问答

⁰