Research on electricity demand in Anhui Province based on social andeconomic saturated development characteristics

金炜; 陈煜; 葛斐; 杨娜; 马静; 王宝

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2018.02.004

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Research on electricity demand in Anhui Province based on social andeconomic saturated development characteristics

更新时间：2026-03-05

- Research on electricity demand in Anhui Province based on social andeconomic saturated development characteristics
- Vol. 20, Issue 2, (2018)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 国网安徽省电力有限公司,合肥,230061
  2. 国网安徽省电力有限公司经济技术研究院,合肥,230022
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2018.02.004
  CLC：
- Published：2018
- 稿件说明：
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金炜, 陈煜, 葛斐, et al. Research on electricity demand in Anhui Province based on social andeconomic saturated development characteristics[J]. 2018, 20(2).
DOI：

金炜, 陈煜, 葛斐, et al. Research on electricity demand in Anhui Province based on social andeconomic saturated development characteristics[J]. 2018, 20(2). DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2018.02.004.

摘要

和电力需求研究有助于把握电力发展特征，指导近中期预测工作。分析了不同国家在饱和发展阶段经济社会发展及电力需求的特征，建立了适用于判定大区域发展饱和阶段的内生特征和电力需求外征的指标体系；研究工业化过程中经济发展、产业结构、人口规模、人均 GDP水平、产值电耗等内生因素，采用协整方法构建了电量需求外征模型并预测了饱和需求，并通过与其它先进地区发展路径进行横向对比印证饱和需求特征的合理性。

Abstract

Saturated electricity demand study contributes tograsp the characteristics of electricity development and guides thenear and medium.term forecasts.The saturation development stageof economic

society and the electricity consumption in differentcountries was analyzed.An index system including endogenous andexternal characteristics for evaluating the regional saturated electrici.ty demand was then established.Based on the research of endoge.nous variables in industrialization process

such as economy

indus.trial structure

population

GDP per capita and electricity consump.tion per unit output value

external characteristics of electricity de.mand was modeled with co.integration and forecasted for saturation.Also

the validity of saturated demand forecast was proved throughcontrast with development process of other advanced province.

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