Analysis of Inundation Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Compound Flooding in Coastal Plain River Network Areas Based on Scenario Simulations

LU Baishu; HUANG Guoru; OUYANG Mingyu

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2026.06.007

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Analysis of Inundation Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Compound Flooding in Coastal Plain River Network Areas Based on Scenario Simulations

更新时间：2026-06-30

- Analysis of Inundation Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Compound Flooding in Coastal Plain River Network Areas Based on Scenario Simulations
- PEARL RIVER Vol. 47, Issue 6, Pages: 71-81(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.华南理工大学土木与交通学院，广东广州 510640
  2.华南理工大学亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室，广东广州 510640
  3.广东省水利工程安全与绿色水利工程技术研究中心，广东广州 510640
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2026.06.007
  CLC： TV8
- Received：11 February 2026，
  
  Revised：2026-03-18，
  
  Accepted：27 March 2026，
  
  Online First：10 April 2026，
  
  Published：25 June 2026
- 稿件说明：
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卢柏树，黄国如，欧阳明宇.基于情景模拟的滨海平原河网区复合洪涝淹没特征分析与风险评估［J］.人民珠江，2026，47（6）：71-81.

LU Baishu,HUANG Guoru,OUYANG Mingyu.Analysis of Inundation Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Compound Flooding in Coastal Plain River Network Areas Based on Scenario Simulations[J].PEARL RIVER,2026,47(06):71-81.
卢柏树，黄国如，欧阳明宇.基于情景模拟的滨海平原河网区复合洪涝淹没特征分析与风险评估［J］.人民珠江，2026，47（6）：71-81. DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2026.06.007.

LU Baishu,HUANG Guoru,OUYANG Mingyu.Analysis of Inundation Characteristics and Risk Assessment of Compound Flooding in Coastal Plain River Network Areas Based on Scenario Simulations[J].PEARL RIVER,2026,47(06):71-81. DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2026.06.007.

摘要

滨海地区洪涝致灾因素多样，形成机制复杂。以广东省前山河流域为研究对象，构建了一二维耦合水文水动力模型，并通过径流系数和历史涝区对模型进行验证，结果表明模型精度满足研究需求。在此基础上，针对8种典型雨潮遭遇组合情景开展数值模拟，系统分析并揭示了雨潮遭遇条件下滨海平原河网区的洪水演变特征。研究结果表明：随着降雨与潮位重现期的增大，前山河流域洪水淹没总面积及各水深等级淹没面积均持续增加，淹没区域主要集中于坦洲镇、三乡镇及洪湾涌出水口周边；洪水风险区以低风险和高风险等级为主，且随着雨潮强度增加，各等级风险区面积显著扩展，其中海水倒灌对高风险区的扩展有显著放大作用。

Abstract

Coastal areas are prone to experiencing the combined effects of rainfall

tidal levels

and storm surges

which can lead to complex flood disasters with intricate mechanisms. To deeply reveal the evolutionary characteristics and driving mechanisms of complex flood disasters in coastal plain river networks

the Qianshan River Basin in Guangdong Province was selected as the research object. Based on the conditional risk probability model

eight typical combinations of rainfall and tide encounters were identified and constructed. A one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydrological and hydrodynamic coupling model was built using basic data such as DEM and land use types. The model was validated by combining runoff coefficients and historical flood area data. The results showed that the model could accurately reflect the hydrological response and waterlogging characteristics of the study area

and the overall accuracy met the research requirements. Based on this

numerical simulations were conducted for eight typical scenarios involving rain and tide encounters. Flood grade classification standards were introduced to grade flood risks

systematically analyzing and revealing the characteristics of flood inundation and the spatial distribution patterns of risks in coastal plain river networks under rain and tide encounters. The research results indicate that under different scenarios of rain and tide encounters

the inundated areas are primarily distributed in Tanzhou Town

Sanxiang Town

and the surrounding areas of the Hongwanyong water outlet. As the tide level and rainfall recurrence period increase

both the total inundated area and the inundated areas of various water depth levels in the study area show a continuous growth trend. Moreover

the newly inundated areas are mainly concentrated in Tanzhou Town

indicating that this area has a high sensitivity to changes in rain and tide. The flood risk distribution is dominated by low and high risk levels

with medium risk areas accounting for a relatively small proportion. The high-risk areas are primarily concentrated in Tanzhou Town and significantly expand as the intensity of rain and tide increases. It is worth noting that seawater inundation will significantly expand the flood inundation range and have a pronounced amplification effect on the expansion of high-risk areas

which is one of the key factors affecting the spatial pattern of regional flood risk. In summary

this study reveals the driving mechanism of tidal level and rainfall variation on the evolution of compound floods in coastal plain river networks

and provides important scientific basis and technical support for flood disaster risk assessment and flood control and drainage engineering planning in such areas.

关键词

Keywords

references

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