Spatio-temporal Variation Analysis of Water Resources in the Pearl River Region Based on Hydrological Variation Diagnosis System

HU Caixia; WANG Renchao; WENG Shichuang

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.11.007

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Spatio-temporal Variation Analysis of Water Resources in the Pearl River Region Based on Hydrological Variation Diagnosis System

更新时间：2025-12-29

- Spatio-temporal Variation Analysis of Water Resources in the Pearl River Region Based on Hydrological Variation Diagnosis System
- PEARL RIVER Vol. 46, Issue 11, Pages: 55-64(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1.珠江水文水资源勘测中心，广东广州 510610
  2.水利部珠江水利委员会水文水资源局，广东广州 510610
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.11.007
  CLC： TV11
- Received：10 April 2025，
  
  Revised：2025-06-20，
  
  Accepted：25 June 2025，
  
  Published Online：14 July 2025，
  
  Published：25 November 2025
- 稿件说明：
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胡彩霞，王任超，翁士创.基于水文变异诊断系统的珠江区水资源时空变异分析［J］.人民珠江，2025，46（11）：55-64.

HU Caixia,WANG Renchao,WENG Shichuang.Spatio-temporal Variation Analysis of Water Resources in the Pearl River Region Based on Hydrological Variation Diagnosis System[J].PEARL RIVER,2025,46(11):55-64.
胡彩霞，王任超，翁士创.基于水文变异诊断系统的珠江区水资源时空变异分析［J］.人民珠江，2025，46（11）：55-64. DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.11.007.

HU Caixia,WANG Renchao,WENG Shichuang.Spatio-temporal Variation Analysis of Water Resources in the Pearl River Region Based on Hydrological Variation Diagnosis System[J].PEARL RIVER,2025,46(11):55-64. DOI： 10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2025.11.007.

摘要

基于全国第三次水资源调查评价成果，采用水文变异诊断系统对珠江区水资源的时空变异规律进行系统性诊断，并对其变异驱动力进行归因分析。研究表明：在时序演变方面，珠江区多年平均地表水资源量呈现稳定态势，未发生显著变异；在空间分布层面，珠江区的3个二级分区即南北盘江区、红柳江区和郁江区的地表水资源量分别在2001、1992、1965年发生了跳跃下降中变异、跳跃上升中变异和跳跃上升弱变异。综合归因分析表明，气候要素是区域水资源量变异的主控因子，南北盘江区的下降变异主要归因于西南干旱背景下降水总量的阶段性缩减，红柳江区与郁江区的上升变异则分别对应90年代后暴雨洪水频率强度提升和60年代后极端降水事件频发，流域下垫面条件改变对红柳江区与郁江区的变异过程起到一定助推作用。研究成果可为珠江区的水资源管理、决策和开发利用提供重要支撑和依据。

Abstract

Based on the results of the third national water resources survey and evaluation

the hydrological variation diagnosis system was used to systematically diagnose the spatio-temporal variation of water resources in the Pearl River Region

and the driving force of variation was analyzed. The results show that the annual average surface water resources in the Pearl River Region show a stable trend in terms of time series evolution

and there is no significant variation. In terms of spatial distribution

the surface water resources in the three secondary regions of the Pearl River Region

namely Nanbeipan River Region

Hongliu River Region

and Yujiang River Region show a variation in jump decline

a variation in jump rise

and a weak variation in jump rise in 2001

1992

and 1965 respectively. The comprehensive attribution analysis shows that climate factors are the main factors of regional water resources variation. The decreasing variation in the Nanbeipan River Region

is mainly attributed to the phased reduction of the total amount of decreasing water under the drought background in the southwest

while the increasing variation in the Hongliu River Region and the Yujiang River Region

corresponds to the increasing frequency and intensity of rainstorm and flood after the 1990s and the frequent occurrence of extreme precipitation events after the 1960s

respectively. The change in underlying surface conditions plays a certain role in promoting the variation process in Hongliu River and Yujiang River Regions. The research results can provide important support and basis for water resources management

decision-making

development

and utilization in the Pearl River Region.

关键词

Keywords

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