Available Transfer Capability Assessment for Multi-area Power Systems Based on Stochastic Source-Load Scenario Sets

ZHU Yanren; SHI Qingxin; MIAO Yifan; HUO Chengfang; ZHANG Lina; TIAN Xin

doi:10.20204/j.sp.2025.07005

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Available Transfer Capability Assessment for Multi-area Power Systems Based on Stochastic Source-Load Scenario Sets

MULTI-ENERGY COMPLEMENTARY DISPATCH AND CROSS-REGIONAL INTEGRATION | 更新时间：2025-10-24

- Available Transfer Capability Assessment for Multi-area Power Systems Based on Stochastic Source-Load Scenario Sets
- Vol. 53, Issue 7, Pages: 36-44(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京,102206
  2. 国网山东省电力公司经济技术研究院规划研究中心,山东,济南,250021
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.20204/j.sp.2025.07005
  CLC：
- Published Online：20 July 2025，
  
  Published：20 July 2025
- 稿件说明：
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朱沿任,石庆鑫,苗谊凡,霍成芳,张丽娜,田鑫.基于随机源—荷场景集的多区域电力系统可用输电能力评估[J].智慧电力,2025,53(7):36-44.

ZHU Yanren, SHI Qingxin, MIAO Yifan, et al. Available Transfer Capability Assessment for Multi-area Power Systems Based on Stochastic Source-Load Scenario Sets[J]. 2025, 53(7): 36-44.
朱沿任,石庆鑫,苗谊凡,霍成芳,张丽娜,田鑫.基于随机源—荷场景集的多区域电力系统可用输电能力评估[J].智慧电力,2025,53(7):36-44. DOI： 10.20204/j.sp.2025.07005.

ZHU Yanren, SHI Qingxin, MIAO Yifan, et al. Available Transfer Capability Assessment for Multi-area Power Systems Based on Stochastic Source-Load Scenario Sets[J]. 2025, 53(7): 36-44. DOI： 10.20204/j.sp.2025.07005.

摘要

为了解决高比例新能源并网导致的运行点偏移，以及传统确定性可用输电能力（ATC）评估方法难以量化时序安全裕度等问题，提出了一种基于随机场景集的多时间断面ATC评估方法。首先，针对新能源出力与负荷需求的多维度不确定性，采用改进的条件Wasserstein生成对抗网络（CWGAN）法生成代表性随机源-荷场景集，构建系统初始运行点；其次，基于安全性指标构建系统的极限运行点，进而建立时序ATC评估模型；通过典型日源-荷场景集对多区域高比例新能源接入的电力系统ATC概率分布进行评估，并计及N-1故障对系统ATC的影响。最后，基于多区域IEEE 9节点系统与实际电网案例的对比分析，验证所提方法的正确性和有效性。

Abstract

To address operational point deviations caused by high-penetration renewable energy integration and the limitations of traditional deterministic available transfer capability （ATC） assessment methods in quantifying time-sequential security margins， a multi-time-interval ATC assessment method based on stochastic scenario sets is proposed. First， considering the multi-dimensional uncertainties of renewable energy output and load demand， an improved conditional wasserstein generative adversarial network （CWGAN） method is employed to generate representative stochastic source-load scenario sets， constructing initial system operating points. Second， critical operating points are established based on security indices， forming a time-series ATC evaluation model. The probability distribution of ATC in multi-area power systems with high-penetration renewable energy is evaluated using typical daily source-load scenario sets， while accounting for the impact of N-1 contingencies on system ATC. Finally， comparative case studies on the multi-area IEEE 9-bus system and an actual power grid validate the correctness and effectiveness of the proposed method.

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