高混凝土坝位移监控模型前期温度因子的优化

柴斌高; 邹嘉鑫; 郑徐敏; 王少伟

doi:10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2025.20240426

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高混凝土坝位移监控模型前期温度因子的优化

更新时间：2026-02-25

- 高混凝土坝位移监控模型前期温度因子的优化
- Vol. 43, Issue 1, Pages: 127-131(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  常州大学城市建设学院
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2025.20240426
  CLC： TV642;TV698.11
- Published：2025
- 稿件说明：
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柴斌高, 邹嘉鑫, 郑徐敏, et al. 高混凝土坝位移监控模型前期温度因子的优化[J]. 2025, 43(1): 127-131.
DOI：

柴斌高, 邹嘉鑫, 郑徐敏, et al. 高混凝土坝位移监控模型前期温度因子的优化[J]. 2025, 43(1): 127-131. DOI： 10.20040/j.cnki.1000-7709.2025.20240426.

摘要

当前高混凝土坝位移监控模型未考虑温度敏感性，所有位移测点均采用相同的温度建模因子，且坝体温度和位移同属响应量，以温度为因子所建位移模型缺乏预测能力。对此，利用Shapley法确定各位移测点较敏感的温度测点，再结合基于滞后影响机理的高混凝土坝实测温度场分区及其因果预测模型，提出了以坝址气温和上游库水位为基础的前期温度因子构建方法，建立了考虑温度滞后性和敏感性的高混凝土坝位移因果预测模型。对锦屏一级拱坝的实例分析结果表明，该方法操作简便、可行性高，为前期气温和库水位选用总时段长度和分段间隔提供了定量依据。相较于谐波温度因子和传统前期分段平均温度因子，所建位移模型预测精度高、测点适应性好，预测均方根误差分别平均降低了24.9%、29.2%。

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references

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