In order to cope with the challenges of electricity price and curtailment rate forecasting under the new energy market transformation

this paper takes the notice on "Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of New Energy on Grid Electricity Price and Promoting the High-quality Development of New Energy" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission as the policy basis

integrates cost analysis

game equilibrium and machine learning methods

proposes a mechanism electricity price bidding model based on Cournot game and a multi-time scale market electricity price aggregation model

and introduces the generation forecasting and curtailment rate forecasting as auxiliary modules to build an integrated forecasting system

and finally integrates the full life cycle economic evaluation system. Taking a 100 MW wind power project in Shandong Province as an example

the empirical analysis shows that the project mechanism electricity price is 0.297 yuan/kWh

the comprehensive power rejection rate is 4%

the net present value of the whole life cycle is 353.937 million yuan

and the internal rate of return is 10.15%

which verifies the effectiveness of the model and the advantages of the "mechanism electricity price + market electricity price" dual track model in improving the stability of project income. The research results can provide quantitative reference for new energy project investment decision

power grid consumption planning and policy optimization.