构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究

李熙志; 林伟; 杨文龙; 朱文超; 杨扬; 谢长君

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0825

English Version Journal Login

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究

更新时间：2026-10-15

- 构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究
- Vol. 47, Issue 9, Pages: 88-98(2026)
- 作者机构：
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0825
  CLC： TK02
- Online First：10 October 2026，
  
  Published：2026
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
李熙志, 林伟, 杨文龙, et al. 构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究[J]. 2026, 47(9): 88-98.
DOI：

李熙志, 林伟, 杨文龙, et al. 构网型储能系统热失控与长期衰退耦合的可靠性研究[J]. 2026, 47(9): 88-98. DOI： 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0825.

摘要

随着高渗透新能源接入

构网型储能系统被更多地用于构建新型电力系统。然而

储能系统的可靠性与运行温度强相关：高温不仅加速容量衰减

还易触发热失控。该文提出一种构网型电池储能系统（grid-forming battery energy storage system

GFM-BESS）可靠性分析框架

基于构网系统运行特性

构建电-热-容量多域耦合模型

并将热失控与衰退失效概率模型相关联

将其嵌入蒙特卡洛仿真框架

基于组串拓扑评估系统可靠度与失电风险

实现从单体失效到整体性能演化的分析;在风储互补系统中开展多场景仿真

评估不同初始电池荷电状态（SOC）及调度策略下的运行可靠性。仿真结果表明

该框架能有效反映构网型储能在动态扰动与衰退耦合工况下的性能演化。

Abstract

With the high penetration of new energy sources

grid-forming BESSs are more frequently used to build new power systems. However

the reliability of BESS is highly correlated with the operating temperature： high temperature not only accelerates the capacity degradation

but also triggers the thermal runaway. This paper proposes a reliability analysis framework for grid-forming BESS

constructs a multi-domain coupling model of electricity-heat-capacity based on the operating characteristics of the grid-forming system

associates the thermal runaway with the degradation failure probability model

embeds it into the Monte Carlo simulation framework

and evaluates the system reliability and the risk of loss of power based on the topology of the string groups to analyze the evolution from cell failure to the overall performance. A multi-scenario simulation is carried out in the wind-storage complementary system to evaluate the operational reliability under different initial SOC and dispatch strategies. The simulation results show that the framework can effectively reflect the performance evolution of grid-forming energy storage under dynamic perturbation and degradation coupling conditions.

关键词

Keywords

references

吴智泉, 贾纯超, 陈磊, 等. 新型电力系统中储能创新方向研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2021, 42(10): 444-451.

石荣亮, 兰才华, 周卢婧, 等. 弱电网下VSG的有功响应特性分析及优化策略[J]. 太阳能学报, 2024, 45(8): 182-189.

盛戈皞, 钱勇, 罗林根, 等. 面向新型电力系统的电力设备运行维护关键技术及其应用展望[J]. 高电压技术, 2021, 47(9): 3072-3084.

Li H, Chen H D, Zhong G B, et al.Experimental study on thermal runaway risk of 18650 lithium ion battery under side-heating condition[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2019, 61: 122-129.

Wei G, Huang R J, Zhang G X, et al.A comprehensive insight into the thermal runaway issues in the view of lithium-ion battery intrinsic safety performance and venting gas explosion hazards[J]. Applied Energy, 2023, 349: 121651.

周志钻, 王博轩, 宋露露, 等. 锂离子电池热失控行为及火灾危险性研究综述[J]. 消防科学与技术, 2024, 43(5): 605-612.

刘玉洁, 赵巍, 孙孝峰, 等. 储能系统锂离子电池附加受控电压源等效电路模型研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2023, 44(8): 1-9.

耿陈, 彭乔, 孟锦豪, 等. 考虑弛豫过程的锂离子电池电-热-老化耦合建模[J]. 电力自动化设备, 2025, 45(3): 33-39.

Zhao X B, Qian X, Xuan D J, et al.State of charge estimation of lithium-ion battery based on multi-input extreme learning machine using online model parameter identification[J]. Journal of Energy Storage, 2022, 56: 105796.

刘素贞, 陈永博, 张闯, 等. 锂离子电池电化学-热-应力三维耦合建模及应力分布研究[J]. 电工技术学报, 2025, 40(4): 1307-1322.

赵珈卉, 田立亭, 程林. 锂离子电池状态估计与剩余寿命预测方法综述[J]. 发电技术, 2023, 44(1): 1-17.

苏伟, 钟国彬, 沈佳妮, 等. 锂离子电池故障诊断技术进展[J]. 储能科学与技术, 2019, 8(2): 225-236.

龙潘, 耿光超, 江全元, 等. 储能系统锂电池电热耦合建模及参数辨识方法研究[J]. 太阳能学报, 2024, 45(4): 318-327.

张蕾, 杨洋, 崔朝阳, 等. 环境温度对锂离子电池放电性能的影响[J]. 电源学报, 2023, 21(5): 207-213.

Ren D S, Feng X N, Lu L G, et al.An electrochemical-thermal coupled overcharge-to-thermal-runaway model for lithium ion battery[J]. Journal of Power Sources, 2017, 364: 328-340.

Li S Y, Ye C J, Ding Y, et al.Reliability assessment of renewable power systems considering thermally-induced incidents of large-scale battery energy storage[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2023, 38(4): 3924-3938.

Gao S, Feng X N, Lu L G, et al.An experimental and analytical study of thermal runaway propagation in a large format lithium ion battery module with NCM pouch-cells in parallel[J]. International Journal of Heat and Mass Transfer, 2019, 135: 93-103.

Zhao Y, Tang Y, Li W Y, et al.Composite power system reliability evaluation based on enhanced sequential cross-entropy Monte Carlo simulation[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2019, 34(5): 3891-3901.

Galeela M, Kopsidas K, Chakravorty D.Reliability framework integrating grid scale BESS considering BESS degradation[J]. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 2023, 152: 109228.

Dai Y T, Peng Q, Liu T Q, et al.Negative resistor-based equivalent circuit model of lithium-ion battery energy storage system for grid inertia support[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Electronics, 2024, 39(11): 15217-15230.

Zeng D, Mohaddes D, Gagnon L, et al.Modeling initiation and propagation of thermal runaway in pouch Li-ion battery cells: effects of heating rate and state-of-charge[J]. Proceedings of the Combustion Institute, 2024, 40(1/2/3/4): 105316.

Cabrera-Castillo E, Niedermeier F, Jossen A.Calculation of the state of safety (SOS) for lithium ion batteries[J]. Journal of Power Sources, 2016, 324: 509-520.

Yu J, Guo C Y, Yu J J.Modeling and analysis method of thermal runaway propagation in lithium battery modules triggered by probability function[J]. Automotive Engineering, 2024, 46(8): 1422-1430.

Fang G Q, Pan R, Hong Y L.Copula-based reliability analysis of degrading systems with dependent failures[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2020, 193: 106618.

Jain T, Verma K.Reliability enhancement with coordinated operation of wind power and battery energy storage using machine learning based unit commitment decision[J]. Journal of Energy Storage, 2025, 111: 115455.

Views

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

一种电池组动态串联均衡结构及其交流输出研究

考虑电池老化成本的配-微协同分布鲁棒调控方法

考虑功率模糊分段的风氢储系统混合电解槽分组轮换策略

计及动态不确定集与蓄电池损耗的微电网鲁棒优化调度

考虑旁路电流的碱水制氢操作参数可行域分析与优化控制

Related Author

刘阳

罗堪

李金龙

黄靖

谷若诗

陈子娅

蔡萱

魏明江

Related Institution

Power Dispatching Control Center of Guangdong Power Grid Co., Ltd.

State Grid Hunan Electric Power Co., Ltd., Changsha 4100042

Provincial Key Laboratory of Smart City Energy Perception and Edge Computing, Hunan City University

School of Electrical Engineering, Hunan University

Beijing Nari Yihe Environmental Technology Co., Ltd.

AI问答

⁰