基于改进块梯法的超短期光伏电站辐照度预测研究

董浩淼; 张耀; 林帆; 李嘉兴; 廖建; 张贝西

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0775

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基于改进块梯法的超短期光伏电站辐照度预测研究

更新时间：2026-10-15

- 基于改进块梯法的超短期光伏电站辐照度预测研究
- Vol. 47, Issue 9, Pages: 341-351(2026)
- 作者机构：
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0775
  CLC： TM615
- Online First：10 October 2026，
  
  Published：2026
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董浩淼, 张耀, 林帆, et al. 基于改进块梯法的超短期光伏电站辐照度预测研究[J]. 2026, 47(9): 341-351.
DOI：

董浩淼, 张耀, 林帆, et al. 基于改进块梯法的超短期光伏电站辐照度预测研究[J]. 2026, 47(9): 341-351. DOI： 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0775.

摘要

提出一种基于改进块梯法的超短期光伏电站辐照度预测方法。首先对数据集进行预处理

包括对地基云图进行鱼眼畸变矫正以及对辐照度数据建立晴空模型并生成晴空指数。接着采用基于最小交叉熵的自适应阈值计算方法识别地基云图中的云层

并利用基于相似度加权的云位移矢量计算方法进行云运动预测。最后通过改进块梯法预测光伏发电辐照度。实验在UCSD-Folsom数据集中进行仿真验证

结果表明

该方法有效提高了超短期光伏电站辐照度预测精度并拓展了传统块梯法的预测时段。

Abstract

This paper proposes an ultra-short-term photovoltaic power station irradiance forecasting method based on an improved block-ladder method. Firstly

the dataset is preprocessed

including fisheye distortion correction on ground-based sky images. A clear sky model is established for the irradiance data to generate clear sky indices. Next

clouds in the ground-based sky images are identified using an adaptive threshold calculation method based on minimum cross-entropy

and cloud motion is predicted with a similarity-weighted cloud motion vector calculation method. Finally

ultra-short-term photovoltaic irradiance forecasting is performed using the improved block-ladder method. Experimental results on the UCSD-Folsom dataset show that this method improves forecasting accuracy and extends the forecasting period of the traditional block-ladder method.

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references

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