基于变时间尺度和两阶段鲁棒优化的电力系统短期平衡裕度提升方法

任强玉; 王建学; 杨钤; 郭瑾程; 齐捷; 张耀

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0034

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基于变时间尺度和两阶段鲁棒优化的电力系统短期平衡裕度提升方法

更新时间：2026-07-21

- 基于变时间尺度和两阶段鲁棒优化的电力系统短期平衡裕度提升方法
- Vol. 47, Issue 5, Pages: 156-166(2026)
- 作者机构：
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0034
  CLC： TM732
- Online First：04 June 2026，
  
  Published：2026
- 稿件说明：
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任强玉, 王建学, 杨钤, et al. 基于变时间尺度和两阶段鲁棒优化的电力系统短期平衡裕度提升方法[J]. 2026, 47(5): 156-166.
DOI：

任强玉, 王建学, 杨钤, et al. 基于变时间尺度和两阶段鲁棒优化的电力系统短期平衡裕度提升方法[J]. 2026, 47(5): 156-166. DOI： 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2025-0034.

摘要

为应对高比例新能源电力系统短期电力平衡充裕性不足的问题

提出一种基于变时间尺度和两阶段鲁棒优化的平衡裕度提升方法。考虑新能源及负荷的不确定性

建立电力系统变时间尺度两阶段鲁棒优化电力平衡分析模型

兼顾短期小时级衔接超短期分钟级平衡;计及不同时段火电机组燃煤品质的差异

对火电机组运行特性进行精细化建模;构建以短期平衡裕度为核心的平衡裕度预警提升体系

通过分层分类调用灵活资源提升短期电力平衡裕度。算例分析结果表明

所提方法可有效提高系统平衡充裕性

提升系统对新能源及负荷波动的鲁棒性

加强系统负荷高峰时段的供电能力。

Abstract

To address the issue of inadequate short-term power balance sufficiency in high-proportion renewable energy power system

a method for enhancing power system balance margin based on variable time scales and two-stage robust optimization is proposed. Considering the uncertainties of renewable energy and load

a two-stage robust optimization model for power balance analysis is established. The model developed short-term hour-level and ultra-short-term minute-level balances at variable time scales. Taking into account the coal quality differences of thermal power units during different periods

a refined model of the operational characteristics of thermal power units is developed. A balance margin early warning and enhancement system centered on short-term balance margin is constructed. Flexible resources are utilized through hierarchical and classified allocation to enhance the short-term power balance margin. The results of case studies demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively improve system balance adequacy

enhance the robustness to renewable energy and load fluctuations and strengthen the power supply capability during peak load periods.

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