RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF MULTI-STATE RENEWABLE ENERGY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION SYSTEMS

Wen Yanqing; Zheng Xiaoya; Chen Jianhui; Zhang Hui; Liu Baoliang; Qiu Qing’an

doi:10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1879

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RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF MULTI-STATE RENEWABLE ENERGY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION SYSTEMS

更新时间：2025-10-18

- RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF MULTI-STATE RENEWABLE ENERGY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION SYSTEMS
- Vol. 46, Issue 3, Pages: 199-206(2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 山西大同大学数学与统计学院,大同 037009
  2. 中国兵器工业标准化研究所,北京 100089
  3. 北京理工大学管理学院,北京 100081
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1879
  CLC： O213TM711
- Published Online：07 April 2025，
  
  Published：2025
- 稿件说明：
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温艳清, 郑晓亚, 陈剑慧, 张慧, 刘宝亮, 邱青安. 多状态可再生能源分布式发电系统可靠性评估[J]. 太阳能学报, 2025, 46(3): 199-206.

Wen Yanqing, Zheng Xiaoya, Chen Jianhui, et al. RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF MULTI-STATE RENEWABLE ENERGY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION SYSTEMS[J]. 2025, 46(3): 199-206.
温艳清, 郑晓亚, 陈剑慧, 张慧, 刘宝亮, 邱青安. 多状态可再生能源分布式发电系统可靠性评估[J]. 太阳能学报, 2025, 46(3): 199-206. DOI： 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1879.

Wen Yanqing, Zheng Xiaoya, Chen Jianhui, et al. RELIABILITY EVALUATION OF MULTI-STATE RENEWABLE ENERGY DISTRIBUTED GENERATION SYSTEMS[J]. 2025, 46(3): 199-206. DOI： 10.19912/j.0254-0096.tynxb.2023-1879.

摘要

针对可再生能源发电系统可靠性建模中二值状态局限性的问题

根据发电系统输出功率和用户电力负载动态变化的特征

构建太阳能光伏发电系统、风力发电系统、用户电力负载相互交叉组合的多状态马尔可夫过程模型

运用聚合随机过程理论

推导出度量系统可靠性的两个重要指标：可用度和供电不足的平均时间。最后

通过数值算例验证模型的正确性和适用性。

Abstract

In order to overcome the limitation of binary state in reliability modeling of renewable energy power generation systems

Multi-state Markov process models are constructed for the cross combination of solar photovoltaic power generation system

wind power generation system

and user power load based on the characteristics of dynamic changes in output power and user power load of the power generation system. Two important reliability indexes

availability and loss of load expectation

are derived by employing aggregated stochastic process theory. Finally

the correctness and applicability of the model are verified by numerical examples. The results show that the proposed model can provide a good theoretical basis for the reliability modeling of renewable energy power generation systems

and a more accurate reliability evaluation of power supply systems can be also achieved by using the proposed model and techniques.

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Keywords

references

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