Endogenous vulnerability and post-disturbance risk assessment of substations considering cyber-physical coupling characteristics

QIANG Ren; GONG Gangjun; WANG Dawei; DAI Hanqi; YANG Jiaxuan

doi:10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.260338

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Endogenous vulnerability and post-disturbance risk assessment of substations considering cyber-physical coupling characteristics

更新时间：2026-09-28

- Endogenous vulnerability and post-disturbance risk assessment of substations considering cyber-physical coupling characteristics
- Power System Protection and Control Vol. 54, Issue 19, (2026)
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- DOI：10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.260338
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- Published：2026
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QIANG Ren, GONG Gangjun, WANG Dawei, et al. Endogenous vulnerability and post-disturbance risk assessment of substations considering cyber-physical coupling characteristics[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2026, 54(19).
DOI：

QIANG Ren, GONG Gangjun, WANG Dawei, et al. Endogenous vulnerability and post-disturbance risk assessment of substations considering cyber-physical coupling characteristics[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2026, 54(19). DOI： 10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.260338.

摘要

针对数智化变电站信息物理强耦合性引发系统脆弱性的问题，提出适配时序安全场景的广域系统关键节点辨识和风险评估方法。首先，基于IEC 61850协议栈对象模型和通信模式，分析典型报文核心功能边界、时序同步依赖机制与内生脆弱特征。其次，因开放式协议存在未经授权访问威胁，提出变电站网络风险传导路径和广义断线跳闸扰动方式。然后，针对国家背书型攻击具备的广域致瘫和链路隐蔽特征，提出多站点、潜入式的精准时间同步协同扰动方式。最后，基于直流最优潮流模型和序贯蒙特卡洛方法，构建变电站扰动风险评估框架。在IEEE-RTS79测试系统中进行仿真验证。结果表明，针对关键节点组合开展协同攻击将导致严重的系统级联失效，相较于单点攻击，协同攻击显著增加了系统失负荷风险，验证了利用时间同步协议开展多站点扰动的有效性。

Abstract

To address the system vulnerability issue induced by strong cyber-physical coupling in smart substations

a wide-area critical node identification and risk assessment method tailored to time-sequence security scenarios is proposed. First

based on the IEC 61850 protocol stack object model and communication patterns

the core functional boundaries of typical messages

time-synchronization dependency mechanisms

and inherent vulnerability characteristics are analyzed. Second

given the unauthorized access threats in open protocols

substation network risk propagation paths and generalized trip-type disturbance patterns are proposed. Then

in response to the characteristics of state-sponsored attacks featuring wide-area incapacitation and link-layer stealth

a multi-site

stealth-infiltration-based concurrent precise time-synchronization disturbance method is proposed. Finally

based on the DC optimal power flow model and the sequential Monte Carlo method

a substation disturbance risk assessment framework is constructed. The proposed framework is validated through simulations on the IEEE-RTS79 test system. The results demonstrate that coordinated attacks targeting critical node combinations can induce severe system cascading failures. Compared with single-point attacks

coordinated attacks significantly increase the system load-loss risk

thereby validating the effectiveness of conducting multi-site disturbances using time synchronization protocols.

关键词

Keywords

references

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