Lifetime prediction method for photovoltaic modules considering environmental stress quantification under dust accumulation effects

ZHANG Lingxiao; SU Yifan; HU Bo; SHAO Changzheng; XIE Kaigui; WU Tao

doi:10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.251390

English Version Journal Login

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Lifetime prediction method for photovoltaic modules considering environmental stress quantification under dust accumulation effects

更新时间：2026-07-27

- Lifetime prediction method for photovoltaic modules considering environmental stress quantification under dust accumulation effects
- Power System Protection and Control Vol. 54, Issue 13, (2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  输变电装备技术全国重点实验室 (重庆大学),重庆,400044
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.251390
  CLC：
- Published：2026
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
ZHANG Lingxiao, SU Yifan, HU Bo, et al. Lifetime prediction method for photovoltaic modules considering environmental stress quantification under dust accumulation effects[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2026, 54(13).
DOI：

ZHANG Lingxiao, SU Yifan, HU Bo, et al. Lifetime prediction method for photovoltaic modules considering environmental stress quantification under dust accumulation effects[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2026, 54(13). DOI： 10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.251390.

摘要

针对现有光伏组件寿命预测方法往往忽略积灰动态影响，难以准确评估多尘环境下组件可靠性的问题，提出一种计及积灰效应下环境应力量化的光伏组件寿命预测方法。首先，分析无尘状态下光伏组件热平衡模型，并提出计及积灰效应的光 - 电 - 热耦合模型及环境应力修正方法。其次，利用改进的自适应噪声完备集合经验模态分解法提取光伏退化趋势信号。然后，构建融合温度、湿度、紫外线辐射和热循环效应的改进环境应力累积损伤模型。通过求解参数估计问题，得到计及积灰效应的光伏组件寿命预测模型。最后，基于实际数据集进行验证，所提方法在 50% 训练样本下剩余使用寿命预测误差仅为 0.11 年，与传统方法相比预测精度提升了 9.23%，为干旱多尘地区光伏电站运维和清洗策略制定提供了理论依据和决策指导。

Abstract

Existing lifetime prediction methods for photovoltaic (PV) modules often neglect the dynamic effects of dust accumulation

making it difficult to accurately evaluate module reliability in dusty environments. To address this issue

this paper proposes a lifetime prediction method for PV modules incorporating quantified environmental stress under dust accumulation effects. First

the thermal equilibrium model of PV modules under dust-free conditions is analyzed

and a photo-electro-thermal coupled model and environmental stress correction method accounting for dust accumulation effects

is developed. Second

an improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) method is employed to extract PV degradation trends. Then

an enhanced environmental stress cumulative damage model integrating the effects of temperature

humidity

ultraviolet radiation

and thermal cycling is constructed. By solving the parameter estimation problem

a PV module lifetime prediction model considering dust accumulation effects is obtained. Finally

the proposed method is validated using real-world datasets. Under a 50% training sample ratio

the remaining useful life prediction error is only 0.11 years

representing a 9.23% improvement in prediction accuracy over conventional methods. The results provide a theoretical foundation and practical decision support for operation and maintenance strategies as well as cleaning schedules in PV power plants in arid and dusty regions.

关键词

Keywords

references

YANG Bo, ZHENG Ruyi, HAN Yiming, et al. Recent advances in fault diagnosis techniques for photovoltaic systems: a critical review[J]. Protection and Control of Modern Power Systems, 2024, 9(3): 36-59.

JAMIL W J, ABDUL R H, SHAARI S, et al. Performance degradation of photovoltaic power system: review on mitigation methods[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2017, 67: 876-891.

MANI M, PILLAI R. Impact of dust on solar photovoltaic (PV) performance: research status, challenges and recommendations[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2010, 14(9): 3124-3131.

DADANIYA A, DATLA N V. Degradation prediction of encapsulant-glass adhesion in the photovoltaic module under outdoor and accelerated exposures[J]. Solar Energy, 2020, 208: 419-429.

MAJD A E. Study of photovoltaic (PV) module interconnections failure analysis and reliability[D]. Wolverhampton: University of Wolverhampton, 2021.

VÁZQUEZ M, REY‐STOLLE I. Photovoltaic module reliability model based on field degradation studies[J]. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 2008, 16(5): 419-433.

LINDIG S, KAAYA I, WEISS K A, et al. Review of statistical and analytical degradation models for photovoltaic modules and systems as well as related improvements[J]. IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics, 2018, 8(6): 1773-1786.

VAZQUEZ M, TAMAYO‐ARRIOLA J, ORLANDO V, et al. Reliability of commercial triple junction concentrator solar cells under real climatic conditions and its influence on electricity cost[J]. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 2017, 25(11): 905-918.

ALMUKHTAR H, LIE T T, AL-SHOHANI W A M. Comprehensive analysis of dust impact on photovoltaic module temperature: experimental insights and mathematical modeling[J]. Solar Energy, 2023, 265.

SALARI A, HAKKAKI-FARD A. A numerical study of dust deposition effects on photovoltaic modules and photovoltaic-thermal systems[J]. Renewable Energy, 2019, 135: 437-449.

JIANG Y, LU L, LU H. A novel model to estimate the cleaning frequency for dirty solar photovoltaic (PV) modules in desert environment[J]. Solar Energy, 2016, 140: 236-240.

YOU Ruoyu, ZHAO Bin, CHEN Chun. Developing an empirical equation for modeling particle deposition velocity onto inclined surfaces in indoor environments[J]. Aerosol Science and Technology, 2012, 46(10): 1090-1099.

HEGAZY A A. Effect of dust accumulation on solar transmittance through glass covers of plate-type collectors[J]. Renewable Energy, 2001, 22(4): 525-540.

LIU Y, DING K, ZHANG J, et al. A self-data-driven method for lifetime prediction of PV arrays considering the uncertainty and volatility[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Electronics, 2024, 39(3): 3668-3682.

BALA SUBRAMANIYAN A, PAN R, KUITCHE J, et al. Quantification of environmental effects on PV module degradation: a physics-based data-driven modeling method[J]. IEEE Journal of Photovoltaics, 2018, 8(5): 1289-1296.

LONGRIGG R. Reliability analysis of photovoltaic modules[J]. Solar Cells, 1989, 26: 241-252.

YAMAN K, ARSLAN G. A detailed mathematical model and experimental validation for coupled thermal and electrical performance of a photovoltaic (PV) module[J]. Applied Thermal Engineering, 2021, 195.

JORDAN D C, SILVERMAN T J, WOHLGEMUTH J H, et al. Photovoltaic failure and degradation modes[J]. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications, 2017, 25(4): 318-326.

Views

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Lifetime prediction method for photovoltaic modules integrating degradation characteristics and random effects inverse Gaussian process

Combined maintenance strategy for PV modules considering random shocks and degradation processes

A section location method for compound single-phase open-circuit ground faults in distribution networks based on negative-sequence voltage amplitude difference

Voltage control of single-phase grid-forming inverters based on a model-assisted extended state observer with a quasi-proportional resonant controller

Model identification pilot protection of dual-end weak-feed AC systems based on active detection

Related Author

PEI Tingting

ZHANG Fangzheng

CHEN Wei

WU Yang

WANG Ao

WEI Zhi

CHEN Ling

HAN Wei

Related Institution

兰州理工大学自动化与电气工程学院

AI问答

⁰