LI Song, XIA Chengjun, LIU Yifu, et al. 基于KAN和误差时间序列自相关性特征的多时间尺度光伏功率预测[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2025, (24).
DOI:
LI Song, XIA Chengjun, LIU Yifu, et al. 基于KAN和误差时间序列自相关性特征的多时间尺度光伏功率预测[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2025, (24). DOI: 10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.250170.
To address the limited nonlinear feature extraction capability of day-ahead forecasting models and the difficulty of model learning due to complex power output fluctuations in intraday forecasting
a multi-time scale photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting method based on Kolmogorov-Arnold networks (KAN) and the autocorrelation features of error time series is proposed. First
in the day-ahead forecasting stage
a forecasting model using KAN as the basic building block is designed. A deep KAN architecture enhanced with residual connections is used to extract spatial features
while a multi-head attention mechanism is employed to extract temporal features
significantly improving the model’s ability to capture diverse climatic characteristics. Then
in the intraday forecasting stage
based on the day-ahead forecasting results
indirect prediction is performed by incorporating the autocorrelation features of the error time series. This approach significantly reduces the fluctuation range of the predicted sequence and lowers the learning difficulty of the model. Finally
experiments conducted using data provided by a PV power forecasting competition demonstrate that the proposed day-ahead model reduces the mean square error (MSE) by at least 3.8% compared with long-short-term memory (LSTM) and Transformer models. Compared with direct forecasting
the MSE of the forecasting results is reduced by 38.3%.
LIU Jing(1. College of Electrical Engineering and New Energy, China Three Gorges University
Hubei Provincial Engineering Research Center for Intelligent Energy Technology (China Three Gorges University)
Fujian Provincial University Engineering Research Center for Smart Grid Simulation Analysis and Integrated Control (Fujian University of Technology),,)