考虑多重不确定性的虚拟电厂可信备用评估

TIAN Fuhao; BAO Minglei; HUI Hengyu; QIU Yutao; DING Yi

doi:10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.240932

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考虑多重不确定性的虚拟电厂可信备用评估

更新时间：2025-12-08

- 考虑多重不确定性的虚拟电厂可信备用评估
- Power System Protection and Control Vol. 45, Issue 10, (2025)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 1.浙江大学工程师学院,浙江,杭州,310015
  2. 浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江,杭州,310027
  3. 国网浙江省电力有限公司,浙江,杭州,310007
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.240932
  CLC：
- Published：2025
- 稿件说明：
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TIAN Fuhao, BAO Minglei, HUI Hengyu, et al. 考虑多重不确定性的虚拟电厂可信备用评估[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2025, 45(10).
DOI：

TIAN Fuhao, BAO Minglei, HUI Hengyu, et al. 考虑多重不确定性的虚拟电厂可信备用评估[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2025, 45(10). DOI： 10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.240932.

摘要

虚拟电厂(virtual power plants

VPP)可为电网运行提供容量可观的备用资源。准确评估和量化VPP的备用是VPP参与电网调控的关键。然而，分布式新能源出力、负荷用电、电价等具有较强的不确定性，可能导致传统基于确定性方法的备用评估结果不可靠。为此，结合VPP的特征，提出了考虑多重不确定性的可信备用定义及评估方法。首先，给出了VPP架构和可信备用定义。然后，构建了考虑各类资源聚合的VPP提供备用的模型。通过蒙特卡洛模拟各类不确定因素，利用核密度估计法确定具有不同置信度的可信备用集合，有效量化了VPP的可信备用。最后，以典型VPP为例进行仿真，验证了所提方法能够有效地刻画多重不确定性条件下VPP所能提供备用的概率特性，能够为调度机构提供更全面可靠的备用信息。

Abstract

Virtual power plants (VPP) can provide considerable reserve capacity for power grid operation. Accurately evaluating and quantifying the reserve capacity of VPP is key to their participating in power grid regulation. However

the strong uncertainties associated with distributed renewable energy output

load consumption

electricity price

and other factors can lead to unreliable results when using traditional deterministic methods for reserve evaluation. To address this

a definition and evaluation method for reserve credit under multiple uncertainties is proposed based on the characteristics of VPP. First

the framework of VPP and the definition of reserve credit are introduced. Then

a VPP reserve provision model is constructed considering various resource aggregation. By applying Monte Carlo to model multiple uncertainties and using kernel density estimation

a set of reserve credit with different confidence levels is derived

effectively quantifying the reserve credit of VPP. Finally

a case study on a typical VPP is conducted. It demonstrates that the proposed method can effectively reflect the probability characteristics of the reserves that VPP can provide considering multiple uncertainties

providing dispatch agencies with more comprehensive and reliable reserve information.

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