An Optimal Decision Model for Inter-provincial Delivery of Multi-energy Complementary Bases Considering the Impact of Carbon Quota and Green Certificate Market

XI Peiyu; WANG Qingbo; KANG Nan; YUAN Mingzhu; ZHENG Shiqiang

doi:10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0018

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An Optimal Decision Model for Inter-provincial Delivery of Multi-energy Complementary Bases Considering the Impact of Carbon Quota and Green Certificate Market

更新时间：2026-04-02

- An Optimal Decision Model for Inter-provincial Delivery of Multi-energy Complementary Bases Considering the Impact of Carbon Quota and Green Certificate Market
- Vol. 43, Issue 2, Pages: 380-389(2026)
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 南瑞集团有限公司(国网电力科学研究院有限公司),江苏省,南京市,210003
  2. 北京科东电力控制系统有限责任公司, 海淀区,北京市,100194
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0018
  CLC： 2
- Published：2026
- 稿件说明：
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XI Peiyu, WANG Qingbo, KANG Nan, et al. An Optimal Decision Model for Inter-provincial Delivery of Multi-energy Complementary Bases Considering the Impact of Carbon Quota and Green Certificate Market[J]. 2026, 43(2): 380-389.
DOI：

XI Peiyu, WANG Qingbo, KANG Nan, et al. An Optimal Decision Model for Inter-provincial Delivery of Multi-energy Complementary Bases Considering the Impact of Carbon Quota and Green Certificate Market[J]. 2026, 43(2): 380-389. DOI： 10.19725/j.cnki.1007-2322.2024.0018.

摘要

多能互补基地的建设对促进清洁能源消纳，提高系统运行稳定性发挥着至关重要的作用。随着碳配额政策的发布和绿电、绿证市场的发展，各类电源运行效益受到多方面的影响，电力交易市场越发复杂，如何根据市场内外部环境确定多能系统优化运行方案，是实现多能互补基地最大能源利用率以及系统收益的难题。考虑新能源随机性与相关性，提出了基于Copula理论的新能源出力场景生成方法，得到基于相关性的新能源预测出力曲线；结合碳配额和绿证市场政策要求，以新能源送出功率最大、送出通道利用率最高和系统能耗成本最低为目标，建立省间外送决策优化模型，并采用NSGA-II算法对模型进行求解。算例验证分析表明，所述模型能够在考虑新能源出力不确定性，市场政策措施影响的基础上得到完善的多能互补基地优化运行方案，有效反映了市场政策措施对发电企业运行效益的影响，可为电力运营及监管机构制定规则，引导市场健康有序发展提供依据。

Abstract

The construction of multi-energy complementary bases plays a vital role in promoting the consumption of clean energy and improving the stability of system operation. With the release of carbon quota policy and the development of green electricity and green certificate market

the operation efficiency of various power supplies has been affected by many factors

leading to an increasingly intricate power trading market. The determination of the optimal operation plan for multi-energy systems according to the internal and external environment of the market

presents a significant challenge in achieving maximum energy utilization efficiency and system benefits within a multi-energy complementary base. In view of the randomness and correlation of new energy

a new energy output scenario generation method is proposed based on Copula theory

and the actual output curve of new energy is thus obtained. In accordance with the policy requirements of carbon quota and green certificate market

an optimization model for inter-provincial export decision-making is established with the aim of maximizing both the output power of new energy and the utilization rate of output channel

while simultaneously minimizing the system energy consumption cost. NSGA-II algorithm is employed to solve this model. The example verification analysis demonstrates the capability of the proposed model in formulating a perfect optimization operation scheme for the multi-energy complementary bases

taking into account the uncertainty of new energy output and the influence of market policies and measures. This approach effectively elucidates the impact of market policies and measures on the operation efficiency of power generation enterprises

thereby offering a solid foundation for the power operation and regulatory authorities to formulate rules and guide the healthy

orderly development of the market.

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